James Fox – Parliamentary elections will be held in East Timor on Thursday, two years from the day when the East Timorese turned out en masse to vote for their independence. It is expected that 400,000 East Timorese will take part in the coming election.

Political campaigning has been going on for a full month. Sixteen parties are officially registered with the United Nations, with more than a thousand candidates vying for 88 seats in a Constituent Assembly whose task will be to draft and approve the constitution for the new state of Timor Lorosa'e. Seventy-five of these seats will be chosen on a national basis and 13 at the district level. Choosing from among such an array of possible candidates under so many different party banners poses a new challenge for a population that has never before participated in free democratic elections.

Fortunately, 14 of the 16 parties have signed a "Pact of National Unity" intended to foster a non-violent election process and a degree of stability after the ballot. These parties have joined in an expression of support for Xanana Gusmao as a future president. Athough the rhetoric has become more heated, there has been, as yet, relatively little violence.

Fretilin, the party that led the revolutionary struggle, is expected to poll well. Mari Alkatiri, Fretilin's secretary general, has already claimed that his party is confident of 80 to 85 per cent of the vote. Given this presumed predominance, all the other parties are in effect running against Fretilin and its well-prepared organisation.

There are, in fact, many challenges to Fretilin. Its position has been weakened by divisions within the ranks of its old guard. Francisco Xavier do Amaral, an early founder of Fretilin, has formed his own party, the Timorese Social Democratic Union (ASDT), and is relying on the old Fretilin revolutionary flag to garner support in the countryside. Abilio Araujo, another former Fretilin leader, who became closely associated with Indonesian interests, has recently returned to lead the Timor Nationalist Party (PNT).

The ASDT and PNT parties appear to have the support of various dissidents including members of the Popular Council for the Defence of the Democratic Republic of East Timor (CPD RDTL) who claim that East Timor has been independent since 1975. This group objects to the UN's presence and opposes the present election process. If violence occurs during the campaign, it is most likely to come from this group in particular.

The Timorese Socialist Party (PST) has positioned itself to the left of Fretilin and is trying to capture some of Fretilin's former support base. The party, for example, is campaigning against Fretilin's commitment to Portuguese as an official language. The Socialist Party regards the use of Portuguese as a clear form of neo-colonialism.

Fretilin's old rival, the Timorese Democratic Union (UDT), has also joined the fray. At a rally on August 12 in Dili, Joao Carrascalao, the leader of UDT directed most of his energetic rhetoric against Fretilin, accusing the party of promoting an intimidating, undemocratic campaign.

Fretilin's old rival has also joined the fray. The main challenge to Fretilin, however, is likely to come from two new parties: the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led by Mario Carrascalao, a respected former governor of East Timor when it was under Indonesian rule, and the Democratic Party (PD), led by Fernando de Araujo, a former student leader who was once jailed with Gusmao in Cipinang prison.

The Social Democratic Party comprises an impressive group of moderates with bureaucratic experience whereas the Democratic Party's support is expected to come from the younger generation.

Fretilin appears to see the Democratic Party as its greater threat, especially since it comprises so many of the youth who successfully organised the East Timorese vote for independence in 1999. They have proved themselves able to do well with few resources against a formidable organisation.

Fretilin has provoked matters by proclaiming that members of the Democratic Party "still smell of their mother's milk". In a country where more than 50 per cent of the population is under 21, it seems an imprudent political tactic to campaign against the younger generation. Even if it loses, the Democratic Party sees itself as the party of the future.

Hundreds of international observers with an accompanying media are now making their way to East Timor with hopes for a peaceful election and a successful transition to independence. In the coming weeks, the world's spotlight will once more be focused on the East Timorese.

[Professor Fox is director of the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University. He was an international observer for the East Timorese independence ballot in 1999 and will be in East Timor again as an observer.]