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Presidential problems: will Wahid survive?

Source
Wall Street Journal - June 28, 2000

[This is an opinion piece from Thursday's Asian Wall Street Journal. Mr. Van Zorge is principal and co-founder of Van Zorge, Heffernan & Associates, a political risk and government relations firm based in Jakarta.]

James van Zorge, Jakarta – There is growing speculation that Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid will face serious challenges to his authority – perhaps even impeachment – during the upcoming August 2000 session of the People's Consultative Assembly, or MPR. On the surface, such a scenario seems perfectly plausible.

When Mr. Wahid presents his progress report before the MPR session, he will have to address several nagging issues and concerns about his administration's performance. Foremost, there is the strong scent of scandals surrounding the president's office. Bulog-gate, Brunei-gate, and other stories of financial improprieties looming on the horizon will provide sufficient fodder for Mr. Wahid's opponents inside the MPR to undermine the president's credibility. More than likely Mr. Wahid will be able to escape allegations of personal misconduct, but how will he answer to allegations of corruption and cronyism within his inner circle of advisors and friends?

Indonesia's democratically elected leader can argue that it is impossible to eradicate corruption overnight and make a plea for patience, but ultimately President Wahid must remember that he is being held to a different standard than were his predecessors. The Suharto and Habibie governments were undeniably corrupt and never held accountable during their tenures. Mr. Wahid, on the other hand, was elected in the beginnings of a more open political climate with higher ethical expectations. And if Mr. Wahid is unable to prove leadership by sacrificing wayward allies – not just foes – he will be painted, rightly or wrongly, with the same brush as those he succeeded.

Tales of corruption will not be Mr. Wahid's only problem in August's MPR session. His antagonists can bemoan the fact that separatist sentiments in the provinces of Aceh and Papua are still running high. Furthermore, the sectarian violence in the Maluku islands has reached new heights.

When Mr. Wahid entered office with promises of maintaining national unity, he took responsibility for tackling Aceh and assigned Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri to Papua, Riau and the Malukus. Mr. Wahid has made some progress in Aceh by stitching together a truce agreement, but clashes continue and there is a strong possibility of the deal falling apart. Vice President Megawati has, on the other hand, proven to be totally ineffectual.

An adamant nationalist on the campaign trail, Ms. Megawati has disappointed her loyalists by showing a passing interest in Papua, at best, and practically no appetite for addressing the Malukus' woes. Scores of journalists will attest to the fact that, just one day after major unrest shook the troubled province, the vice-president was spotted in Hong Kong on a shopping spree. Gucci and friends might be amused, but why hasn't Mr. Wahid reassigned this critical portfolio to a more proactive and capable politician?

Then there is the economy. Progress on restructuring of the corporate sector, privatizations and reducing the foreign debt has been painfully slow. Granted, the government's macroeconomic policy has been sound, and a consumer-led economic recovery has started, but without discernable progress on restructuring the economy there is little doubt that Indonesia's recovery will prove to be short lived.

The International Monetary Fund is pessimistic about the commitment and capability of key economics ministries to deliver on their promises of reform, with the latest IMF mission departing Jakarta unable to complete its review. Unless Jakarta can meet its past obligations on reforms by early July, there is little hope for a new letter of intent being issued before August's MPR session. That would mean a delay in a disbursement of the IMF's next loan tranche of around $500 million, which is bad news for both the economy and the president.

When Mr. Wahid enters the MPR session, he can certainly deflect criticism on economic policy by pointing out the deficiencies of his coalition cabinet. All the president's men are not really his men, and they have been prone to backtracking and delays on the reform front for the sake of narrow political interests.

So, one must ask, what will be the outcome of the much-anticipated MPR session? Mr. Wahid will come under intense criticism for sure, but the big question being posed on today's cocktail circuits is, will the MPR impeach him? Luckily for Mr. Wahid, there is an anticlimax to the impending drama: There are no constitutional provisions or legal rulings that provide the MPR with the power to impeach the president. Here, one should be reminded that Indonesia is a presidential, not a parliamentary, system of governance. There is no equivalent, such as in European parliaments, of a vote of "no confidence." Simply put, the president remains in power unless he becomes incapacitated or passes away during his term in office.

In the final analysis, President Wahid will survive this coming MPR session, but his credibility will be damaged severely during its proceedings. A weakened incumbent will, in turn, set the stage for finalizing the debate raging inside the halls of the MPR on amending 1945 Constitution. Included in the amendments that will be proposed to the plenary session are direct presidential elections and rulings on impeachment of the president. So far, it looks like the proposed amendments will pass muster.

The passage of constitutional amendments on direct elections and impeachment rulings would signal some significant changes to Indonesia's political architecture, indeed. With constitutional provisions for direct elections and impeachment in place, for the first time ever the Indonesian president could be held accountable for his actions. The prospect of real accountability – not only toward oneself but also before an entire nation and its representatives – will serve as a wake-up call to Mr. Wahid and his future successors.

This year's theme of accountability does not end with constitutional measures. Before embarking on his recent visit to the US, Mr. Wahid met with Vice President Megawati, who also heads the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, and Akbar Tandjung, chairman of Golkar. Collectively representing the majority of party seats in the MPR, Ms. Megawati and Mr. Tandjung agreed that the president should be given a blank check to create a cabinet of his own making, not by the dictates of what is essentially a dysfunctional coalition. With blank check in hand, Mr. Wahid now has a golden opportunity to improve his administration's performance. But the green light from Indonesia's two most influential party heads for Mr. Wahid to redo the cabinet does not come without costs, for once he chooses his own men he can be held directly accountable for their actions – good or bad.

Herein lies the bottom line: Can Mr. Wahid resist his instinct of relying on old friends and associates to occupy high-ranking posts in his government? Now unshackled by the constraints of a coalition, Mr. Wahid must turn the corner and select a capable, experienced group of ministers to run the government. Especially important posts that drive the economic reform program include the ministers of finance, trade and industry, the economics coordinator, and the head of state-owned enterprises. Equally important is the posting of the attorney general, which needs to be filled with someone who possesses the political savvy and daring to push ahead with legal reform and the prosecution of ghosts of the past, such as former president Suharto and his circle of friends.

If Mr. Wahid does act with wisdom in his appointment of a new cabinet, Indonesia will surely face a more promising economic future. Investors will have reason to positively reassess business prospects, discontent provinces will have a less rosy perspective on secession, and the president's enemies will begin to resemble more a loyal opposition than a band of disloyal snipers. The ball is now in Mr. Wahid's court.

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