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Golkar still has chance of winning: Pundits

Source
Straits Times - May 20, 1999

Marianne Kearney, Jakarta – As Indonesia's election campaign kicked off, analysts here predict that the ruling Golkar still has a strong chance of winning, despite poll predictions placing Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-Struggle as the most popular party.

While Golkar "might be finished in Java", it was still popular in Sulawesi, Irian Jaya, South Sumatra, Maluku, and the eastern islands, said political commentator Andi Mallareng.

The outer islands vote will significantly influence the elections because of their high representation among Parliament's 462 elected seats.

Mr Mallareng said Golkar still had a chance of winning or coming a close second after PDI-Struggle, despite the announcement of an alliance between the three major opposition parties and Time magazine's revelation that the Suharto family is worth US$15 billion.

Polls in this week's Kompas newspaper placed President B. J. Habibie as the least popular presidential candidate behind Ms Megawati, National Mandate Party's (PAN) Dr Amien Rais and Yogyakarta's Sultan Hamengkubuwono X in three of five major cities.

But the President outstripped his opponents in his hometown of Ujungpandang, South Sulawesi. Mr Mallareng said Golkar's choice of Dr Habibie as its sole candidate was not political suicide, as some thought, but a smart choice:

"Who are the other candidates? Megawati, Amien Rais, Abdurrahman Wahid and General Wiranto are all Javanese. So, for the outer islands, Habibie is breaking the myth that the president should be Javanese."

Golkar's choice last Friday was criticised because the President was seen close to Mr Suharto's New Order regime and had been perceived as foot-dragging with a probe into the Suharto family's alleged wealth.

Political analyst Valine Singka Subekti said the party could still command a majority in the assembly which elects the president in November – if seats reserved for the armed forces (ABRI) were combined with those of smaller parties rumoured to support Golkar, and the 200 other appointed representatives.

Although ABRI has declared its neutrality, Ms Valine said that it would side with Golkar after the polls because of its previous history with the party.

Mr Mallareng agreed that the alliance between Ms Megawati, Dr Amien and Muslim scholar Abdurrahman Wahid would make it difficult for Golkar in Java.

But citing a Asia Foundation survey which showed that 63 per cent of respondents believed that the government cared about them, he said this was a more accurate guage of the party's support.

The Kompas polls, on the other hand, gave a "skewed" view as it only surveyed urban centres and was a telephone poll – which ignored lower-class voters.

Ms Valine said Golkar would probably keep support in the outer islands because of its "strong networking" and use of "money politics".

But political analyst Herbert Feith countered this view, saying that parties such as PAN with its pro-autonomy policy also had widespread support.

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