Kafil Yamin, Jakarta – The ruling Golkar party is among Indonesia's most unpopular organisations, and even the sight of its official yellow colour is enough to elicit violent reactions from many people.

But the chances of the party, which used to be headed by President Suharto, cannot be disregarded in the run-up to general elections in June.

Political analysts say it may still win in the elections, Indonesia's first democratic vote in four decades. And that, they add, may mean more unrest in already volatile Indonesia.

Many instances of unrest and violence have been blamed on long-simmering ethnic and religious conflicts. But some analysts say their root lies in Indonesians' growing frustration with the way the nation is run and their unmet expectations of political change since Suharto fell from power in May 1998.

While many Indonesians had hoped that Suharto's exit would mark a new beginning, the former president's protege, Bacharuddin J Habibie, succeeded Suharto and Golkar remained in control.

Disappointed Indonesians therefore see the June 7 polls, their first since Suharto stepped down, as their next chance at effecting change.

But a recent survey by the Institute of Public Affairs reveals that the party that has dominated Indonesian politics for more than three decades is expected to secure 20 percent of the votes – a formidable figure compared to what the other parties are predicted to get.

Analysts say while Golkar is still in the basement as far as public sentiment is concerned, the opposition parties are simply too small and lack a nationwide network to seriously challenge Indonesia's most powerful political organisation.

The Institute also says that if Golkar wins most parliament seats, it will be due mainly to coalitions among parties believed to be affiliated with it, such as the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) faction led by Budi Harjono, the People's Sovereign Party (PRD) and the Justice Party.

But observers say a Golkar win would not sit well with Indonesians who have greeted the party's recent political rallies with unbridled hostility, and may result in more upheavals.

In at least three major rallies held by Golkar across Java this month, people attacked the party's supporters.

During a rally in Purbalingga, for instance, men wearing yellow shirts were forced to remove them while similarly clad women had to seek refuge in police stations to escape being harmed by an angry mob.

Golkar convoys traveling across the country have also been stoned, and cars carrying Golkar officials and supporters overturned and set ablaze.

Observers say such reactions are understandable since Golkar has yet to be held accountable for three decades of corruption and human rights abuses committed by government officials and military officers.

Said a recent editorial in the 'Tempo' newsmagazine: "Golkar was like an athlete who constantly practised doping. He bites ears of opponents, but had always been allowed by [an] unjust referee [to continue] in an unqualified match."

"Now there is supposed to be a decision that suspends it from taking part in the next competition ... [but] Golkar goes ahead with its past sins," it added.

Golkar, meanwhile, has pinpointed supporters of opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri, head of her own faction of the Indonesian Democratic Party, as being the instigators of many of the attacks.

Some in fact say Megawati, daughter of Indonesia's late first President Sukarno, is said to be facing dwindling popularity because of the actions of her followers.

Comments one local politician: "People came to realise that she is unable to control her own people, lead her own organisation. How can she lead the nation?"

But observers trace the hostility of Megawati's supporters to the July 1996 attacks on her headquarters by military-backed factions who wanted a pro-Suharto rival to head the party and to head off a challenge from Megawati.

"The present violent practices are actually the fruit of what Golkar taught [people to do] in the past," says one government critic. "It is only logical that Golkar now 'enjoys' the fruit."

All this makes Rubiyanto, a professor at the Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, say that Indonesian politicians are simply not yet prepared to deal with genuine democracy.

He noted: "The present escalation of violence only shows that political groups prefer the use of force in obtaining their goals."

"I am not sure that the 'democratic groups would be willing to accept [a Golkar] victory in the upcoming elections, even if it were fair," he added.

Noted scholar Nurcholish Majid says Indonesia suffers from political immaturity and a misconception of democracy. "The key [in] democracy is willingness to accept others," said Majid. "It means all parties should be ready for compromises."

He adds that part of Indonesia's problems stems from the perception that the Habibie government should not be in power at all. "Not only is this government transitional," said Majid, "many view this as not being a legitimate transitional government."

The political expert says this is why it is crucial to "make the next election a success". But to bring that about, Majid says all parties must learn to restrain themselves from violent practices and accept the results of a democratic process.

Observed Majid: "It is the whole nation that will suffer if the elections fail."

Heri Akhmadi, director of Institute of Public Affairs, says changing old habits is hard. "Suharto-ism is still vividly there. It is a much more difficult task to eradicate Suharto-ism than to simply oust Suharto."

"Suharto-ism is a personality, which has turned out to be also a political, social, cultural and economic system. It has been deeply rooted in our behaviour. Long-term measures are needed to eliminate it," Akhmadi said.