K.T. Arasu, Jakarta – The effects of the El Nino-induced drought hitting Indonesia could worsen sharply in the coming months, causing disease and hunger in many parts of the country, experts say.
And unless the authorities manage to restore confidence in the battered rupiah, the potential food crisis will loom even larger as Indonesia enters a delicate political period ahead of President Suharto's bid for re-election next March.
"In the coming three to four months you will have real hunger, increased infant mortality and increased mortality in various places," economist Taco Bottema of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said on Friday. "You will be more prone to diseases."
"The estimations are that there will be a reduced domestic agricultural product as a proportion of GDP (gross domestic product)," he said.
"People estimate (a decline of) between two to four percent next year...it could be a little bit higher," Bottema said, warning of a drastic reduction in food output in areas without irrigation.
He said those in the dry upland areas might contract tuberculosis, influenza and typhoid, while those in the lowlands would be exposed to cholera.
"What you will get...in eastern Indonesia where irrigation is not yet widely developed is malnutrition, hunger...and a move to eating root crops," he said. "The production of security food such as cassava, sweet potato and maize will be less."
"Rainfall in the mountain areas has left us. The rain falling on mountains becomes irrigation water downstream, so irrigation capabilities will be less than usual."
The El Nino weather pattern, caused by higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, has severely disrupted food production in parts of the archipelago and contributed to a famine that has killed 500 people in the eastern province of Irian Jaya.
The recent Asian currency crisis, which has slashed about 50 percent of the rupiah's value against the U.S. dollar since July, threatens to aggravate food shortages. The rupiah's fall has sent the price of imports, from computers and clothing to rice, soaring to levels unaffordable for many Indonesians. Already, there have been reports of people in southern Sumatra relying on tuber for meals because of insufficient rice.
According to H.S. Dhillon, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Society of Agronomists, the result is a potentially explosive situation that can only be defused with prompt action from Indonesia's leaders, currently seeking financial help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
"They should soften the blow. Otherwise, this is a powder keg," he said. "It (the IMF package) has to serve as a buffer."
A IMF-led team has been holding talks with Indonesian authorities for two weeks over an economic assistance package aimed at restoring investor confidence in the economy.
Dhillon said Indonesia could soften the blow of the drought by seeking a bigger package from the IMF. There have been rumours that the IMF would extend $25 billion to Indonesia.
"If people cannot afford to buy rice (because of rising prices)...then it might cause turbulence," agreed economist Christianto Wibisono of the private Business Data Centre.
"That is why (President) Suharto has sought intervention before the crisis becomes worse," he said.
"Now he (Suharto) can still bargain (with the IMF). If the economy collapses, the conditions will be set. He (Suharto) was pre-emptive," Wibisono said. "People are looking at the IMF as a specialist who can save them with professionalism and money."
Wibisono said deregulation of the country's agricultural sector was unlikely to be one of the conditions laid down by the IMF in its economic assistance package. "It might only come one or two years later," he added.
Millions of Indonesians carry out subsistence-level farming of a wide variety of food crops ranging from the rice staple to soybeans, which are fried with flour to make a local delicacy called tempe, and corn, eaten by people and used as animal feed.
Indonesia has been weaning itself away from dependence on the agricultural sector, but it still contributes significantly to earnings. In 1995, the agricultural sector contributed 16.1 percent of GDP, compared with 20.2 percent in 1990.
The country is among the world's top producers of oil palm, coffee, cocoa and rubber. ESCAP's Bottema said the drought was expected to delay the country's rice harvest, which usually begins in January, by some three months. A prolonged drought could also have long-term effects on the production of palm oil.
"A drought in early 1998, though not expected, would have both short term and long term effects (on oil palms)," said agronomist John McEwen, general manager of Bakrie Sumatra Plantations.
"This will result in a bigger proportion of male flowers and could also lead to abortion of some female flowers and a reduction in growth of maturing bunches. These could translate into a lower crop production 20 to 24 months later," he said.
The head of Indonesia's Central Statistics Bureau, Sugito, predicted in early October that the economy would grow by seven percent this year, compared with 7.98 percent in 1996.
He forecast an inflation rate of seven percent this year, against 6.47 percent in 1996.
"I think inflation will be around seven percent this year if we seriously handle food supplies," he said.
"We are optimistic that we can achieve economic growth of seven percent this year compared to 7.98 percent in 1996. It is clear economic growth will not he as high as in previous...," he said.