Iman Pambagyo – An economy does not grow because officials say it is strong or statistics look reassuring. It grows on confidence, built when businesses and investors see policies that are coherent, consistent, transparent, and predictable.
Last week, the market delivered a very strong message that all four were in short supply. MSCI merely sounded the alarm.
Facts first, panic later
On October 15, New York time, MSCI opened a consultation on reclassifying Indonesia from an "Emerging Market" to a "Standalone Market." The following day, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) plunged more than 8% at the opening, prompting the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to halt trading for 30 minutes. It closed down 11.57% at 5,185 and lost around 15% over the week. The rupiah again weakened beyond Rp18,000 to the US dollar.
This is not yet a final decision. Feedback is open until April 30, 2027, with a final decision due by June 30. But the timeline is no invitation to bargain for a reprieve. MSCI has indicated it will proceed unless the consultation produces clear evidence of material improvement. Of 12 downgrade consultations since 2006, ten ended in downgrades. What is required is not more lobbying, but evidence.
The stock exchange is simply where market anxiety surfaces fastest. In recent weeks, economic actors have received signals that do not always align. As of October 14, Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) had recorded 1,297 hotspots, with smoke observed from Sumatra to Papua, disrupting local economic activity.
In Bali, queues at fuel stations stretched for hours from October 12, although the situation had begun to ease by publication. Officials cited a delayed tanker, while others questioned how a delay of roughly 12 hours could leave fuel scarce across the island.
The finance minister has stressed that the 2027 state budget was designed to run a deficit. That may be technically correct. But with the rupiah again above Rp18,000 and markets searching for an anchor, a technically accurate statement can sound out of touch when repeated weeks later.
Each event has its own explanation. Investors, however, do not read the country one ministry or sector at a time. They read it as a whole, in a single breath.
Four tests of trust
Transparency. MSCI has raised concerns about suspected coordinated trading, opaque ownership structures and the lack of meaningful enforcement despite announced reforms. Authorities have announced plans to disclose shareholdings above 1% and introduce a minimum free float of 15%.
The Financial Services Authority (OJK) has also begun sanctioning violations involving securities transactions and share allocations. These steps matter, but they are only half the answer. Markets want transparent findings and consistent enforcement, regardless of who is involved or how large the business group.
Major corporate transactions, including those involving shares pledged as bank collateral, raise further questions: Where does the financing come from? What collateral is involved? What are the implications for free float and banking-sector risk?
Even legitimate transactions invite scrutiny when their financing and implications remain unclear. Transparency is measured not by the rules announced, but by how quickly market questions are answered.
Consistency. In June, when MSCI retained Indonesia's emerging-market status but set a deadline ahead of its November review, the coordinating economic affairs minister said its observations underscored the strength of Indonesia's fundamentals. In October, the message remained much the same: fundamentals were strong, and the problem was sentiment. The statement may be defensible. But repeating it before and after an index loses double-digit percentages risks conveying that the message has not changed even as reality has.
Coherence. Fuel stocks are declared sufficient, yet petrol stations run dry. The capital market is described as troubled in one forum and performing well in another. The deficit is said to be under control, yet the rupiah breaches Rp18,000. Individually, these statements may be defensible. Together, they are difficult to reconcile into a convincing account of the economy's condition and direction.
Predictability. Deadlines shift, regulations arrive in stages, and Danantara's proposed involvement in exchange ownership through demutualization has raised questions among some observers about the stock exchange's independence. Markets can live with strict rules. What they struggle to accept is uncertainty about the rules that come next.
What can be done before April 30, 2027?
These problems do not necessarily require new legislation. They require discipline. First, establish one coordination platform and one voice. The government plans to convene the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) in response to MSCI's announcement. It should bring together OJK, IDX, Bank Indonesia, the Finance Ministry and the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, with regular market briefings. Every assertion that fundamentals are strong should come with a concrete action and timeline.
Second, disclose enforcement findings. Sanctions should be accompanied by public explanations of the findings, legal grounds and follow-up actions. One coordinated-trading case resolved thoroughly and transparently would be more convincing than ten new regulations.
Third, accelerate disclosure. Major share acquisitions should be disclosed promptly and comprehensively, including financing sources and material collateral arrangements. A publicly accessible portal covering shareholdings above 1% should support this effort.
Fourth, publish a regulatory calendar. Set out the timetable and consultation periods for the 15% free-float requirement, exchange demutualization and other reforms, avoiding sudden changes. Clarify the safeguards for exchange independence before proceeding with any corporate action affecting IDX ownership.
And fifth, demonstrate progress rather than rely on diplomacy with MSCI to change market sentiment. Establish a public dashboard tracking enforcement, ownership transparency, actual free float and capital flows, updated monthly and independently verified.
The same principle applies beyond the stock exchange. Daily public data on fuel stocks at distribution terminals would reassure more than a thousand statements that supplies are adequate. Concrete efforts to lower the cost of food, clothing and housing matter more than rhetoric about standing with the people. Private-sector job creation offers greater dignity than persistent dependence on government subsidies.
Indonesia's response to MSCI before April 30 should present this dashboard and the evidence behind it, rather than question why the country is being scrutinized.
The queue
Balinese residents who spend hours queuing do not care that national fuel stocks are declared sufficient. Their tanks are empty, and that is the only data they trust. Investors are no different.
On June 30, 2027, they will not ask whether Indonesia's fundamentals are strong. They will look at whether the tank of confidence has been refilled. If Indonesia is still repeating the same words in the same tone, asking investors to be patient as they wait for a delayed tanker, there will be no need to await anyone else's announcement. We will already know the answer.
The most consequential decision rests with Indonesia itself: will it treat MSCI's announcement as a temporary disturbance in market sentiment, or accept it as a forceful wake-up call to reform the economy and make it more worthy of trust?
[Iman Pambagyo is the Trade Ministry's Director General of International Trade Negotiations (2012-2014, 2016-2020) and Indonesia's Ambassador to the WTO (2014-2015). The views expressed in this article are those of the author.]
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/opinion/strong-fundamentals-fragile-trus