Chandra Adi Nurwidya, Investor.id, Yogyakarta – A group of Indonesian economists has called for a fundamental reassessment of President Prabowo Subianto's Free Nutritious Meals program, arguing that its universal approach consumes vast public resources that could be more effectively directed toward children and families most at risk of food insecurity.
Vid Adrison, an economics lecturer at the University of Indonesia and a member of the Indonesian Economists Alliance, questioned the rationale for providing government-funded meals on such a broad scale rather than targeting households that struggle to afford adequate food.
Speaking at a discussion at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta on Friday, Vid argued that a program designed to eventually cover tens of millions of Indonesians sits uneasily alongside claims of broad economic prosperity.
"If the target is 82.9 million beneficiaries, that means the program is universal, so claims that the economy is already doing well become contradictory," Vid said. "Why? Because at the same time, everyone supposedly needs assistance just to be able to eat."
The government's current plan for 2027 targets 72.46 million beneficiaries, including about 60.6 million students and 11.87 million pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers and toddlers, according to the National Nutrition Agency (BGN).
Vid said government food assistance should instead prioritize people who genuinely struggle to meet their nutritional needs.
He cited national socioeconomic data showing that a minority of Indonesians consume inadequate amounts of food, arguing that such data could inform more targeted interventions.
Official Central Statistics Agency (BPS) data show that the prevalence of inadequate food consumption in 2024 stood at 10.39% among the bottom 40% of households by expenditure, compared with 6.42% among the middle 40% and 2.9% among the richest 20%.
Vid stressed that the economists were not challenging the objective of ensuring Indonesians have sufficient food and nutrition.
"When we criticize this program, we are accused of opposing efforts to feed the people," he said. "Nobody wants people to suffer. What we criticize is the implementation, not the objective."
Rp 8 trillion could be enough
Lili Yan Ing, secretary-general of the International Economic Association, proposed a dramatically smaller and more targeted version of the Free Nutritious Meals program, known by its Indonesian acronym as MBG.
She estimated that a program focused on children most in need could operate with a budget of no more than about Rp 8 trillion ($448 million) a year.
Her calculation draws partly on BPS data showing that 10.57% of students from households in the bottom 40% of the expenditure distribution reported never eating breakfast.
The same BPS survey found that 9.67% of students overall never ate breakfast, although the figure varied substantially by socioeconomic group, location and education level.
Under Lili's proposed scenario, the government could provide meals to 3 million children for 200 school days at Rp 13,000 per child per day.
That would cost approximately Rp 7.8 trillion annually.
The calculation illustrates the potential cost difference between universal and targeted approaches.
Lili also suggested that some nutrition assistance could be delivered through targeted cash transfers or vouchers to lower-income families, restricted to staples and nutrient-rich foods such as rice, legumes and green vegetables.
She argued that such a model could retain one of MBG's stated economic objectives – supporting local producers – by directing purchases toward food produced in beneficiaries' communities while reducing the administrative burden of preparing and distributing tens of millions of cooked meals.
Hundreds of trillions of rupiah
The scale of the existing program is vastly larger.
The 2026 state budget initially allocated Rp 335 trillion to MBG. BGN chief Sudaryono said in August that the allocation had subsequently been reduced to Rp 229 trillion following spending reviews and adjustments to the number of operating days.
For 2027, BGN has a budget ceiling of Rp 240.20 trillion. Of that amount, Rp 232.88 trillion is allocated to the National Nutrition Fulfillment Program, including Rp 232.5 trillion specifically for MBG food assistance.
The government argues that MBG is an investment in human development rather than simply a food subsidy. It says the program is intended to improve nutrition while generating jobs and creating demand for farmers, fishers, livestock producers and small businesses.
Lili, however, argued that the scale and design of the program should be reconsidered following repeated food safety incidents and amid investigations into alleged corruption in its management.
Tens of thousands of illnesses have been reported in suspected food poisoning incidents associated with free meals since the program began, prompting authorities to tighten food safety procedures and review meal kitchens.
Separately, the Attorney General's Office is investigating alleged corruption in the management of MBG at BGN during 2025-2026 and has questioned witnesses. The investigation remains ongoing, and the allegations have not been proven in court.
"What is needed now is a moratorium, pilot projects and an evaluation," Lili said.
Fiscal capacity under pressure
Lili placed her criticism in the broader context of Indonesia's limited fiscal resources.
She noted that Indonesia's tax-to-GDP ratio has remained relatively low for years, constraining the government's ability to simultaneously finance large social programs, infrastructure, education and other development priorities.
The government's 2027 budget plan projects revenue of Rp 3.43 quadrillion and expenditure of Rp 4.10 quadrillion, leaving a deficit of Rp 671.2 trillion, equivalent to 2.4% of gross domestic product. Tax revenue is projected at Rp 2.908 quadrillion.
"Amid uncertainty in global oil prices and rising interest rates, we need to make low-productivity programs more efficient to maintain fiscal stability," Lili said.
She argued that fiscal capacity should be treated as a scarce resource, particularly as the government also faces substantial debt-servicing obligations.
The issue, she said, is not simply whether Indonesia can keep its budget deficit below the statutory ceiling, but whether each rupiah of government expenditure generates sufficient economic and social returns.
In Lili's view, spending should be assessed by its ability to improve productivity and produce a meaningful multiplier effect on economic growth rather than simply by whether the government has sufficient room to finance it.
Lili also questioned the treatment of free meal spending within Indonesia's broader education budget.
She calculated that MBG-related expenditure in 2027 would account for nearly 30% of the education budget, arguing that this means a substantial share of resources classified under education would go toward providing meals rather than directly improving teaching, learning outcomes, teacher quality or school infrastructure.
Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-isnt-that-rich-economists-question-universal-free-meal-progra