Jakarta – After several years of relatively "wetter" dry seasons, Indonesia is now facing a hot spell that could be drier and longer than usual. The latest forecast from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) shows the archipelago has an 83 percent chance of experiencing a weak to moderate El Nino, expected to emerge midyear.

The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) separately warned of a potentially strong El Nino between April and October that could reach "Godzilla-like" intensity, potentially prolonging this year's dry season while also making it drier. While we are still in the transition from the rainy to the dry season, some regions are already battling the impacts of El Nino, which often triggers less rainfall across the archipelago.

As of March, 7 percent of the country's seasonal zones had entered the dry season, with more expected between April and June. We hope the government will not be complacent in mitigating the upcoming hot season after at least three years of heavy rainfall. We should in fact be better prepared for El Nino, as historical records show the climatic anomaly tends to dent the country's economy and food supply.

During the 1997-1998 El Nino, Indonesia's rice harvest dropped by up to 6 percent compared to the previous year. Combined with the global and national economic crisis at the time, rising food prices put more pressure on the people, especially those in lower-income brackets.

Unfortunately, we are in a similar position today. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to flare up, the conflict will impact Indonesia's energy security and, at the domestic level, drive commodity prices up. Should the government fail to prepare for El Nino, it will only put more pressure on citizens who are already struggling to stay afloat.

Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman has repeatedly said that national rice stocks had reached a "historically high level" of 28 million tonnes in April, including standing crops that would be sufficient for the next 11 months. But ensuring rice availability is not enough. The government also needs to ensure that food can be affordably accessed by everyone in every part of the country.

Aside from rice, authorities also need to brace for forest and peatland fires, especially after 42,000 hectares burned through March, a teaser of what is to come in the months ahead as regions become hotter and drier. We surely do not want to repeat the catastrophe of the 2015 El Nino, one of the strongest in recent history, when drier air ignited massive wildfires on Sumatra and Kalimantan islands. Dozens of people died due to the direct and indirect impacts of those fires, while Indonesia made international headlines for sending haze to its neighbors.

While authorities scramble to mitigate the short-term impacts of this year's El Nino, the government should also look further ahead to prepare the country for a hotter world. Studies show global average temperatures will rise rapidly due to uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions, with little sign of slowing. With each temperature increase, the impacts of phenomena such as El Nino will become more severe, especially for archipelagic countries like Indonesia.

As with extreme rainfall during the wet season, extreme drought and wildfires will become the "new normal" during dry seasons on a warming planet. Scientists have already projected worst-case scenarios if we fail to adapt to this changing world. Now is the time to follow the science so we can adjust aspects of our lives while reducing the costs of these extremes.

Now is the time to act, before more "Godzillas" rampage through our cities and villages and leave millions to suffer.

Source: https://asianews.network/bracing-for-godzilla-the-jakarta-post