Hendro Dahlan Situmorang, Jakarta – Indonesia's dry season could begin earlier than usual this year, with the onset forecast between April and June 2026 and a peak expected in August, the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said on Wednesday.

BMKG chief Teuku Faisal Fathani said a weak La Nina event that had persisted since October 2025 ended in February 2026, clearing the way for a transition toward drier conditions.

Speaking at a press conference on the 2026 Dry Season Forecast Update, Teuku said the dry season is projected to begin in April in 114 seasonal zones, representing 16.3% of the country's total climate zones.

In May, the dry season is expected to begin in 184 seasonal zones, or 26.3%, followed by 163 zones, or 23.3%, in June.

"The dry season will start in Nusa Tenggara and gradually spread to other parts of Indonesia," Teuku said.

BMKG divides Indonesia into hundreds of seasonal zones to monitor rainfall patterns and determine the onset and characteristics of the wet and dry seasons.

According to the agency, 325 seasonal zones – about 46.5% of the country – are forecast to experience an earlier-than-normal start to the dry season. Meanwhile, 173 zones, or 23.7%, are expected to see the dry season begin within the normal time frame.

The agency also warned of drier-than-usual conditions in many areas. Total rainfall accumulation during the dry season is projected to be below normal in 451 seasonal zones, or 64.5% of the country.

Teuku added that the peak of the dry season is forecast to occur in August 2026 in 429 seasonal zones, accounting for 62.4% of all zones nationwide.

Source: https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesias-dry-season-may-start-early-in-2026-peak-in-august-bmk