Yvette Tanamal, Jakarta – Indonesia has entered 2026 with a clearer vision of its foreign policy following Foreign Minister Sugiono's annual address, analysts say, but questions remain over how Jakarta plans to turn its stated ambitions for resilience into concrete policy
Critics note that persistent issues, including the lack of long-term strategy and a hesitation to speak out decisively when partners falter, remain unaddressed, underscoring the need for greater clarity beyond rhetorical statements.
"The address reflected an element of continuity within the Foreign Ministry, and is conceptually aligned with prevailing discourse on a fragmented, transactional world marked by weakening multilateralism. These are all correct entry points," said Andrew Mantong, a senior international relations analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), during a panel discussion in Jakarta on Thursday.
"Still, identifying a problem does not in itself amount to a policy. [...] Our challenge, beyond maintaining conceptual continuity, lies in ensuring that these ideas translate into economic and security policies anchored in democratic values," he continued.
In his hour-long addresses on Wednesday outlining Indonesia's foreign policy posture for the year, Sugiono cast resilience as Jakarta's guiding principle in a fractured global order, advocating a more "realist" strategy underpinned by defense and economic cooperation.
The speech emphasized Indonesia's commitment to strategic autonomy in what the minister described as a "multiplex world order", framing Jakarta's flurry of high-level international engagements last year as an effort to diversify partnership and broaden cooperation amid a stalled multilateral system.
After what many described as a year of intense yet opaque diplomatic activity, analysts welcomed Sugiono's diagnosis of the global order as a sober reading of the international system, though they remained cautious about its policy implications.
"We may understand the problem, but what is the strategy? What can actually be done if the United States engages in rule-breaking unilateralism? How would Indonesia promote cooperation amid this turbulence? None of these points were addressed," asked Lina Alexandra, head of the CSIS international relations department, at the same panel.
Skirting around the issue
Sugiono's repeated emphasis on resilience as the core theme of Indonesia's diplomacy has done little to dispel lingering ambiguity over Jakarta's recent posture, Lina argued, particularly as the speech stopped short of identifying specific challenges or the actors driving them.
"This so-called resilience, in practice, leans more toward avoidance. Our desire to be resilient has seemingly made us reluctant to act or to name any violator states. This is a problem," she said.
Over the past year, as US President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through global politics with his foreign policy on the Middle East and, most recently, Venezuela, Indonesia has faced growing domestic criticism for what many view as a reluctance to directly condemn such actions, despite its long-standing tradition of vocal opposition to similar moves.
Sugiono's speech, for example, lamented the "weaponization of economic policies" and blatant violations of international law, but stopped short of naming any specific countries.
When pressed by reporters afterwards on whether the remarks were aimed at the US, Sugiono rejected the suggestion, saying they were intended to apply to all countries.
Beyond a hesitation to tread on political sensitivities, the address also offered limited clarity even in areas where Jakarta appeared more confident, particularly defense diplomacy, said Ahmad Rizky M. Umar, an expert from Aberystwyth University.
While Sugiono referenced defense diplomacy, resilience and realism, Umar said these concepts remained largely normative and unfocused.
"What I see instead is a blind spot: these elements were not paired with a strategy for diplomatic partnerships or engagement with major powers. Any shred of hints appeared without focus or clear direction," he said.
"The minister invoked realism while simultaneously promoting ASEAN, for example. There is hesitation, a lack of clarity and a degree of conceptual confusion."
Source: https://asianews.network/uncertainty-lingers-over-indonesias-foreign-policy-direction