Annisa Febiola, Jakarta – The Indonesian currency, rupiah, weakened by 43 points to 16,363 per U.S. dollar in today's trading, closing on Monday, July 28, 2025. At the close of the previous week, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Indonesian rupiah was recorded at 16,320.
Ibrahim Assuaibi, director of TRFX Garuda Berjangka, said that several factors continue to influence the movement of the rupiah exchange rate. One of them is related to the U.S. import tariff policy.
"The market responded positively after the news of the AS-European Union (EU) framework agreement announced on Sunday," he said. The agreement includes a 15 percent tariff for EU goods entering the US, down from the original 30 percent.
On the other hand, high-ranking U.S. and Chinese officials are scheduled to meet in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday local time. This meeting is set to extend the period of tariff suspension.
Furthermore, Ibrahim stated that the market is now anticipating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday local time. He said that overall, the market predicts that interest rates will remain stable between 4.25 and 4.5 percent.
He added that there is a 96 percent chance that the central bank will maintain the interest rate, while there is a 4 percent possibility that the Fed will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. "Most projections indicate that the interest rate cut will be carried out at the earliest in the September meeting," Ibrahim said.
Regarding domestic matters, Ibrahim highlighted the national poverty data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). BPS announced that the national poverty rate has dropped to the lowest level in two decades. According to the results of the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) from March 2025, the number of impoverished individuals in Indonesia was 23.85 million.
However, the poverty rate in urban areas has increased from 6.66 percent in September 2024 to 6.73 percent in March 2025. Conversely, the poverty rate in rural areas as of March 2025 is 11.03 percent, down from 11.34 percent in September 2024. Although in terms of quantity, poverty in rural areas is still higher than in urban areas.
Ibrahim predicts that the rupiah exchange rate in tomorrow's trading will still be weak. "For tomorrow's trading, the rupiah currency will be fluctuating but closing weaker in the range of Rp16,350 to Rp16,410," he said.
Source: https://en.tempo.co/read/2033438/rupiah-weakens-to-16363-per-us-dollar-down-43-point