Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo suffered his first major political defeat, just two months before he steps down, when a popular revolt denied him the chance to field his youngest son to run in the November polls to elect the leaders of regional governments.
Until last week, it looked like nothing could stop Jokowi from building his political dynasty. He controls all major political institutions, from the executive and the legislative branches to the judiciary and the police. Public opinion was also very much behind him, going by his approval ratings in the dying weeks of his reign, with most surveys putting it at above 70 percent.
Last week, spontaneous protests by students and workers in Jakarta and other major cities took the nation's political elite by surprise, foiling the House of Representatives' plan to endorse a revision of the Regional Elections Law that would have allowed 29-year-old Kaesang Pangarep, the President's youngest son, to run in one of the local elections.
Kaesang's name had been mentioned as a candidate to contest a gubernatorial election, either in Jakarta, a job his father held in 2012-2014, or in Central Java, the home province of the Jokowi clan. Kaesang is also chair of the small Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which his father secured for him last year only two days after he joined.
The planned law revision would also have shut down the chance of former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, Jokowi's political nemesis, to contest the elections.
The Aug. 22 protests, some marred by violence between protesters and police, were massive, forcing the House to reverse its plan less than 24 hours after the majority factions had given support for the amendments. The House plenary meeting for the formal vote was canceled. But the real message from the protesters, openly supported by some of the country's top universities, was not so much the planned changes to the electoral law as attacking President Jokowi's maneuvers to use of his power to build his political dynasty that would ensure that he remains powerful after Oct. 20 when he formally ends his second five -year term.
Jokowi's meddling included getting the Constitutional Court (MK) last year to come up with a ruling that allowed his oldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, despite his young age at 36, to contest the February presidential election as running mate to the eventual winner Prabowo Subianto, who is his defense minister. The General Elections Commission (KPU) and the Elections Supervisory Agency quickly got themselves in on the act to ensure that the regulations were changed in time.
None of these institutions were found to have violated the law, but they were all reprimanded for breaches of ethics. MK chair, Anwar Usman, who is married to Jokowi's younger sister, lost his position, although he was allowed to remain on the bench; the KPU chair Hasyim Asyari was later fired for sexual misconduct.
With the MK no longer in the hands of the Jokowi clan, last week it came up with a ruling reversing an earlier ruling by the Supreme Court that set the minimum age of 30 for a new governor to be sworn in. This move was clearly designed to accommodate Kaesang, who will turn 30 only in December. The inauguration is scheduled for January.
The earlier ruling set the minimum age of 30 at the time of registering for the election, which would automatically disqualify Kaesang from running. The MK decided that the earlier ruling applied for the November election. Kaesang can still run for mayor or regent positions, which have a minimum age of 25.
As part of the dynasty building, Jokowi's son-in-law Bobby Nasution is contesting the North Sumatra gubernatorial election. A handful of other close friends and associates of the outgoing president are also contesting the November elections.
Last week, Jokowi also secured control of the Golkar Party, the country's second-largest party, by forcing its chairman Airlangga Hartato to resign, paving the way for his right-hand man Bahlil Lahadalia to take over. Control over Golkar will wield Jokowi some influence in the next administration under his successor Prabowo, whose coalition government includes the party.
But reality has sunk in that much of the power conferred on a president is slowly waning as Jokowi nears the end of his reign.
The MK ruling paved the way for last week's massive protests. Some of the students had been prepared to occupy the House building, but they backed off after the House said it would not change the electoral law.
But the episode shows that Jokowi is no longer as invincible as he has been before.
It also shows that the House, in which eight of the nine parties are members of his coalition government, is no longer fully under his control. Previously, whatever legislation he wanted, he got it. This time, Prabowo's Gerindra Party, which had pushed for the changes in the electoral legislation, pulled the proposal.
The Prabowo camp and the Presidential Palace this week were forced to come out with a statement denying any rift between the outgoing and incoming presidents. Prabowo has repeatedly pledged his loyalty to Jokowi, and promised to continue many of his predecessor's policies.
In recognition of his waning public support, Jokowi in a speech this week said, "Usually, [support] comes in droves [at the start of a presidency]. But, once it's almost over, it also leaves in droves," The Jakarta Post reported.
What we've heard
A source in the House said one of the key figures who maneuvered to expedite the completion of this revision was deputy speaker Sufmi Ahmad Dasco. Sufmi, who is also Gerindra's executive chairman, led the House Legislation Body (Baleg) meeting to pass the revision of the Regional Elections Law without consulting Speaker Puan Maharani of the PDI-P and another deputy speaker, Muhaimin Iskandar of the PKB.
Dasco also brought Habiburohman, a member of the House's Commission III from Gerindra, into Baleg on Aug. 22 to strengthen the revision plan. The source said Dasco also asked members of the grand coalition supporting Prabowo to quickly finalize the revision of the law.
A Gerindra source said Prabowo, who just arrived from his overseas trip, was angry with Dasco for the maneuvering, which was against his wishes. "Some generals around Prabowo also disliked this maneuvering," said the source. The source said Prabowo said he did not mind a competition among the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) in the regional elections.
[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]
Source: https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2024/09/02/analysis-is-jokowi-losing-it.htm