Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – Vice president-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka has been touring Jakarta amid his busy agenda as mayor of Surakarta, Central Java, stopping by Central Jakarta's Tanah Tinggi subdistrict and Nangka Market as well as South Jakarta's Manggis Market on July 3, accompanied by popular celebrity and TV host Raffi Ahmad.
Earlier on June 28, he strolled along the Semanggi River in Tegal Alur, West Jakarta, alongside acting Jakarta governor Heru Budi Hartono.
During these visits, Gibran distributed milk and school supplies as social assistance, repeating a tactic he and Prabowo Subianto deployed to promote their free school lunch program while campaigning for the 2024 presidential election in February.
The eldest son of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo has said he was simply trying to get a clear picture about the country's socioeconomic problems ahead of his inauguration on Oct. 20. However, some believe Gibran was actually campaigning for his younger brother and Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) chair Kaesang Pangarep, who might contest the Jakarta gubernatorial election, which Gibran has denied.
Notwithstanding the speculation, Gibran's Jakarta visits have come as president-elect Prabowo steps up preparations for the transfer of power from the Jokowi administration via his so-called synchronization team. These preparations apparently do not involve Gibran or other political parties in Prabowo's Onward Indonesia Coalition.
The synchronization team comprises elite members of his Gerindra Party, including deputy chairman Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, secretary-general Ahmad Muzani and treasurer Thomas Djiwandono, who is also Prabowo's nephew.
The team met with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on May 31 and plans to meet with other ministers of the Jokowi cabinet before Prabowo and Gibran's inauguration, in an effort to help the new government start working immediately.
Gibran's notable absence in the preparations has raised questions about his role in the incoming government. His recent visits to Jakarta suggest his lack of access to the Prabowo presidency's master plan; otherwise, Prabowo would have involved his vice president-elect in the synchronization team or in regular meetings at the very least to discuss their government.
It's safe to say that Gibran is struggling to prove he is on an equal footing with Prabowo in discussing matters related to the incoming government, regardless of his outward image as the embodiment of Jokowi's influence in the next administration.
In fact, Indonesia's vice presidents have always played second fiddle, even during its modern democratic era. The Constitution does not define the detailed roles and responsibilities of a vice president, only that they should assist and replace the president in the event of incapacitation. The Indonesian public often compares a vice president to a spare tire: a mandatory component that matters only in an emergency.
The last three vice presidents, the incumbent Ma'ruf Amin, Jusuf Kalla and Boediono, were specifically assigned by their bosses to manage the poverty alleviation program. It remains to be seen whether Prabowo will continue this division of labor, given his preference for a one-man show.
Some political observers viewed Gibran's Jakarta visits as an attempt to boost his popularity, which lags far behind that of his father: Jokowi garnered 80 percent in the latest approval rating, an extraordinary feat for an outgoing president.
To increase his bargaining power vis-a-vis Prabowo, Gibran also reportedly sought to join the Golkar Party after returning his membership card to the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which helped him win the Surakarta mayoralty five years ago. This plan has not materialized to date and he does not appear to have a plan B for his political career.
Gibran's mercurial rise cannot be separated from his father's power. As a political novice in 2019, Gibran won the very post that leveraged his father's elevation to the national stage, from Surakarta mayor to Jakarta governor in 2012 and then to the presidency in 2014.
But with his father's impending departure, it is questionable whether Gibran can keep flying the flag of the Jokowi political clan in national politics. For the time being, he has to settle some unfinished work for his mayoralty before finally taking up his office in Jakarta, or perhaps the new capital Nusantara in East Kalimantan.
What we've heard
A politician with close ties to Prabowo said preliminary discussions had been held over Gibran's role as vice president in the incoming government, and it was decided that he would handle the creative economy. "He will not be responsible for critical sectors," said this source, who added that Prabowo would directly manage such sectors, including macroeconomic and foreign affairs.
According to this same source, Gibran would also coordinate development of Nusantara Capital City (IKN), his father's legacy project, with the assistance of selected politicians such as Emil Dardak of the Democratic Party, whose term as East Java deputy governor had just ended. "Emil is asked to help Gibran handle the development of the new capital," the source said.
They also said Gibran was close to Kendal Regent Dico Ganinduto of Golkar, who planned to run for Central Java governor in November's regional head elections.
Prabowo and Gibran had rarely met since the February election, the source continued, noting that the president-elect had met frequently with experts that supported his governmental plans, such as former Bank Indonesia governor Burhanudin Abdullah and former Constitutional Court chief justice Jimly Asshidiqie.
The source added that the last time Prabowo and Gibran met was on June 28, when the latter visited several subdistricts in Jakarta and distributed social aid.
[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]