Amy Sood – As Indonesia's Prabowo Subianto is set to be named the official winner of last month's presidential race, allegations of electoral fraud and retaliatory investigations have cast a shadow over the nation's democratic integrity, following what analysts describe as "one of the least trustworthy" polls in recent decades.
The Election Commission's credibility has come under scrutiny after it last week stopped displaying the results of its ongoing official vote tally online, prompting parties supporting Prabowo's rivals to cry foul play, and activists and watchdog groups to demand greater transparency into the vote tabulation process.
Observers say concerns about Indonesia's electoral integrity have been amplified because of the many controversies surrounding the February 14 vote, including allegations that incumbent President Joko Widodo used his influence to support Defence Minister Prabowo's campaign.
This included the nomination of Widodo's son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as Prabowo's running mate and accusations that state officials distributed government welfare resources to win votes for Prabowo.
"There is a whole ongoing debate about all the accusations of state intervention and Jokowi's political manoeuvring behind the scenes, that has already hurt the credibility of this election," said Yoes Kenawas, a research fellow at Atma Jaya Catholic University in Jakarta.
"For many people, this is seen as one of the least trustworthy elections since Indonesia's democratic period [began] after the fall of Suharto in 1998," he told This Week in Asia.
'Many irregularities'
According to the unofficial quick-count results on election day, Prabowo earned nearly 60 per cent of the vote, which would give him a significant margin of victory over his two rivals, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo.
Anies told reporters on Wednesday that he planned to file a case at the Constitutional Court to contest the results of the election, citing a lack of state neutrality.
"When we are talking about free and fair elections this also means that the state takes a neutral position toward any contestants and organises the election in a neutral way. That has been absent," he said, declining to provide further details about the case.
Meanwhile, a coalition of civil society groups over the weekend released a statement urging political parties supporting Ganjar and Anies to push for a legislative inquiry on what they described as "strong indications" of fraud in the lead-up to the election.
However, it is unclear how many parties would join such an effort, particularly when some of them might seek to align themselves with Prabowo as he assembles his ruling coalition.
The biggest point of controversy centres around the sudden increase in votes for the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), which is led by President Widodo's youngest son, Kaesang Pangarep.
The young progressive party is known to have a small support base and in 2019 failed to win the minimum of 4 per cent of votes to get a seat in parliament.
Watchdogs monitoring this year's official vote count observed the PSI gaining 230,000 votes over three days, raising eyebrows about the improbable spike. While the party is still yet to pass the 4 per cent threshold, observers say civil society groups are likely to raise accusations of potential vote-rigging if they do.
"This is a small party that is fairly new to the scene. If they suddenly pass the 4 per cent mark, people will have questions... also about [Widodo's] potential role," said Yoes, noting that no newcomer party had been able to cross the minimum required to get a parliamentary seat since the policy was enacted in 2009.
Following the concerns about the vote spike for PSI, the Election Commission (KPU) removed the live vote count numbers from its online platform, citing technical issues.
Campaigners for Anies and Ganjar have strongly criticised the move, saying that "influential people or parties" may have played a role in the inaccuracies that forced the KPU to take down its vote count.
"If we cannot see [the online display], then something is being hidden behind it," said Sudirman Said, head of Anies' campaign team.
"This is one example that proves many irregularities. The display was just a front... but behind it, there are machines, systems, people, actions and policies," he added.
Nicky Fahrizal, a political researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, said the KPU was facing issues regarding "chaotic election management".
"[This is] concerning issues of election irregularities, violations of the code of ethics, and an imperfect recapitulation system," he said. "So, it is natural and rational for civil society to criticise and monitor matters of transparency and accountability."
Risk of retaliation
However, observers say Prabowo's rival candidates and their parties need to be careful in their criticisms, lest they find themselves facing retaliatory actions.
Presidential candidate Ganjar, for example, was last week reported to Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) for allegedly embezzling more than 100 billion rupiah (US$6.4 million) during his tenure as Central Java governor.
The claim was filed by the chair of Indonesia Police Watch, Sugeng Teguh Santoso, who is also a member of Kaesang's PSI party.
Ganjar swiftly rejected the allegations, saying he had never received any gratuities during his time as governor. His camp argued the complaint was politically motivated, because Ganjar had been pushing for a legislative investigation into the alleged election irregularities. They also highlighted Sugeng's position with the PSI.
Researcher Fahrizal said the KPK investigation could also be "an effort to undermine Ganjar's credibility and gradually erode his political career, particularly evident as his vote share in the presidential election was poor".
Observers say the anti-corruption agency's has increasingly been used as a political tool "by those on top".
"Over the past five years, there has been a trend in which legal instruments are being transformed into tools to weaken the power of political opponents," Fahrizal said.
According to analyst Yoes, the KPK's independence had been "effectively weakened" during Widodo's second term as president.
The agency also had figures with questionable track records, such as former chairman Firli Bahuri, who was fired in December after being implicated in an extortion case, Yoes said.
Presidential candidate Anies was also reported to the KPK last year by politicians in the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, over corruption allegations related to a Formula-E race held in Jakarta in 2022 while he was governor.
The status of that case now remains uncertain, Yoes said. "But it was seen at the time also as a politically motivated move to try and undermine his [presidential run]," he added.