Singapore – Indonesian defence minister Prabowo Subianto secured a landslide victory in the country's presidential election on Feb 14, based on sample counts tallied and over 75 per cent of votes officially counted as of Feb 23.
But it is outgoing president Joko Widodo who has been busy since the election, holding meetings and making moves that observers say are aimed at ensuring a seamless transition during the remaining eight months of his term – and maintaining his political influence after leaving office.
With Mr Prabowo's coalition of parties lacking a parliamentary majority, which could potentially lead to legislative gridlock, Mr Widodo is strategically manoeuvring to bolster his likely successor's support in the 580-member House of Representatives, experts say.
Mr Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, has wasted no time. On Feb 18, he hosted Mr Surya Paloh, leader of the National Democratic (Nasdem) party which had backed Mr Prabowo's opponent, Mr Anies Baswedan, for what seemed like a casual dinner at the presidential palace.
Questioned by reporters, Mr Widodo downplayed the meeting as "routine" and expressed his intention to be a "bridge".
"I'm just a facilitator. The important thing is the involvement of the political parties later on. My intention is to serve as a bridge for everyone. Political matters fall within the realm of the parties," remarked the 62-year-old president, whose son Gibran Rakabuming Raka will become vice-president under Mr Prabowo.
Nasdem has remained tight-lipped about the meeting. Mr Willy Aditya, a senior party official, emphasised Mr Paloh's commitment to prevent national division stemming from the recent presidential election.
Three days after the dinner with Mr Paloh, Mr Widodo appointed Mr Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, leader of the Democratic Party and son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), the Minister of Agrarian Affairs and Spatial Planning.
The younger Mr Yudhoyono took over from Mr Hadi Tjahjanto, who was appointed Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister. Mr Tjahjanto took over from Mr Mahfud MD, who resigned earlier this month and was vice-presidential running mate of presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo.
This minor reshuffle brought the Yudhoyono clan back into power after a decade of political wilderness in the opposition.
Thwarting a grand opposition coalition
The president is clearly concerned about the threat of a parliamentary inquiry, locally known as Hak Angket, into alleged electoral fraud, said political analyst Dr Cecep Hidayat from the University of Indonesia.
Mr Ganjar and the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) have called for an inquiry into alleged irregularities in the election. This inquiry, if pursued, would require the support of at least 25 members of the House of Representatives and more than one group of parties in parliament, as outlined in Law No. 17 of 2015.
A parliamentary inquiry could potentially lead to the impeachment of the president, precipitating political turmoil that might destabilise the outgoing administration and disrupt the smooth transition to Mr Prabowo's presidency, Dr Cecep explained.
Echoing Dr Cecep, Dr Ujang Komarudin, a political expert from the University of Al Azhar Indonesia, said Mr Widodo cannot afford domestic political turmoil that might weaken the incoming administration.
As tensions remain high with PDIP matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri, Dr Cecep observed Mr Widodo is lobbying Mr Paloh to prevent the formation of a united opposition front between Nasdem and Ms Megawati's PDIP against Mr Prabowo.
Mr Widodo's urgency in meeting with Mr Paloh was to preempt the media tycoon from engaging with Ms Megawati, said Mr Hendri Satrio, a leadership and political expert from Paramadina University. Otherwise, "things could get messy for the president," Mr Hendri said.
According to local media reports, Ms Megawati now plans to meet with former vice-president Jusuf Kalla, the political mentor of Mr Anies who also enjoys a close relationship with Mr Paloh.
Mr Widodo likely plans to maintain his political influence after leaving office – whether as kingmaker, by assuming an official role in the presidential advisory council, or within a political party, said Dr Ujang.
"He certainly won't disappear from the political arena. His meeting with Mr Paloh positions him as a power broker to pave the way for Nasdem to enter Mr Prabowo's coalition, underscoring his vested interest in ensuring the continuity of his policies and safeguarding his legacies," noted Dr Ujang.
"Mr Widodo understands well that former presidents who have left the palace would lose their influence if they no longer hold political office or attempt to maintain their political leverage."
Mr Prabowo's coalition – made up of his Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), Golkar, Democratic Party, and National Mandate Party – is likely to command only 43 per cent of parliamentary seats, but the next government coalition would require a broad majority to ensure the political stability desired by Mr Widodo, Dr Ujang reckoned.
Indonesian political parties have a track record of post-election realignments in order to maintain their access to state patronage and resources.
In 2009 and 2014, losing party Golkar joined the winning coalition of PDIP. In 2019, Mr Prabowo's Gerindra made the surprise move of joining Mr Widodo's cabinet after its electoral defeat and a bruising presidential contest, showing how ideologically fluid the country's political landscape is.
Dr Ujang said President Widodo recognises the challenges faced by Indonesian political parties outside the government. "Mr Widodo's strategy aligns with Mr Prabowo's desire to embrace all political parties including the losing ones, as articulated in his victory speech," he added.
While the PDIP could assume the role as the sole opposition when Mr Prabowo takes over as president, its ability to effectively oppose the government may be limited as it is likely to control of less than one-fifth of parliamentary seats, compared to the government's likely supermajority coalition.
PDIP is currently leading the pack of 18 parties in the legislative elections with 16.78 per cent of the vote, with over 62 per cent of official votes counted.
Prabowo's challenges
But with a potentially large coalition on the horizon, Mr Prabowo will face significant challenges.
Besides needing to secure the parliamentary majority, the 72-year-old former special forces commander must also manage the diverse interests within his coalition, balancing different parties and factions under a "big-tent" approach, Dr Cecep said.
"His initial cabinet appointments and the composition between politicians and technocrats will be closely watched as a test of his ability to navigate these complex dynamics."
Dr Cecep also highlighted the possibility of an "ongoing shadow government" where Mr Widodo, despite officially stepping down, continues to wield significant influence behind the scenes.
This, the pundit argued, could eventually lead to clashes of Mr Widodo's and Mr Prabowo's visions. "Can their relationship remain cordial?" Dr Cecep questioned.
He pointed to current tensions in the Philippines, where a deepening rift between President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr and Vice-President Sara Duterte has been widely covered in the media. Mr Marcos has denied any feud with the daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte, with whom he won a landslide victory in the 2022 elections.
Mr Hendri believes Mr Prabowo will establish his own authority when he takes over the reins.
"It will be difficult for Mr Widodo to maintain his influence over Mr Prabowo. Mr Prabowo has a very strong independent character (and will want to) prove that he is better than his predecessor," he said. "He will give Mr Widodo political space, but not for long."