Tenggara Strategics, Jakarta – The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has begun what it claims is the selection process to determine its presidential candidate, with talk of the party's roster being narrowed to five currently unnamed party members.
However, reflecting on PDI-P chair Megawati Soekarnoputri's much talked about speech during the party's 50th anniversary, the PDI-P's presidential candidate selection process may well turn out to be little more than a formality.
The PDI-P is said to have picked the five-member shortlist after deliberation on the potential candidates' "quality and track record" as party members. They had passed previous stages in the party's internal selection process, knocking out cadres who once numbered in the dozens.
Though Megawati remains tight-lipped about the criteria of the PDI-P's presidential candidate, reports have revealed that there are both general and special requirements set by the party in drafting the names of the cadres that they will nominate in the upcoming presidential election. The general requirements state that the cadres should have no problematic history with the PDI-P, while the special requirement made a point about the cadres' quality, which the party is said to assess through interviews on various matters.
The month of March is reportedly when the five names will be cut down to three names, though the names will remain unspecified to the public. Following this, the "last cadre standing" is projected to be announced as the PDI-P's presidential candidate by Megawati in June. The PDI-P said Megawati would not reflect on the candidates' popularity based on surveys.
News of the PDI-P's supposed selection process of its presidential candidate gives a behind-the-scenes look into the months leading up to the ruling party's long-anticipated presidential candidate announcement. Yet this selection process may be a mere formality to paint the party's presidential candidate decision as somewhat democratic.
During the PDI-P's 50th anniversary gathering last month, Megawati gave a speech in which she stressed that as the party's chairwoman, it was her prerogative to determine the PDI-P's presidential candidate, outwardly stating it was "my business". President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo had even chimed in during his own speech by assuring the party's cadres that Megawati would be "wise" and "calculative" in deciding her choice.
It is said that Megawati has been struggling between naming her daughter, House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani, who repeatedly scores low in public opinion surveys, and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who tops all public figures in surveys. Though Megawati did not name any presidential candidate during the event, the issue of female leadership that she addressed in her speech is said to signal her support for her daughter Puan's presidential bid.
PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said the name of the PDI-P's presidential candidate was actually already in the hands of Megawati. This indicates that Megawati is indeed the sole decision-maker behind the party's presidential candidate. Hasto's statement was mirrored by Puan who said Megawati had already made up her mind about whom the party would nominate for the upcoming presidential election and that a public announcement would be made soon. This indicates that the selection process of the PDI-P presidential candidate is mere formality, if not a farce.
What's more
On June 1, the PDI-P is set to hold a large rally at Gelora Bung Karno (GBK) Stadium in Central Jakarta to consolidate the party amid what Megawati has called the "month of Bung Karno", sparking a bigger buzz that the chairwoman might announce the party's candidate during or near this event. Previously, reports circulated that the PDI-P's presidential candidate selection process would end in June with Megawati's announcement.
However, Hasto said the party's presidential candidate would not be announced during the planned rally on June 1, as it would focus on celebrating the birth of Pancasila, the state ideology. Therefore, Hasto argued, it was not the right moment to make such an announcement. Hasto added that Megawati would need to make prior observations, calculations and communications to announce the party's presidential candidate at the right time.
Even though the selection process of a political party's presidential candidate is a matter of internal affairs, with the PDI-P's selection process likely a mere formality, a survey conducted by Litbang Kompas, the research arm of Kompas daily, found that 68.8 percent of respondents agreed that political parties should hold open conventions to select potential presidential candidates. These open conventions would involve both political party cadres as well as non-political party individuals.
On the other hand, only 9.1 percent of respondents agreed that a convention should only involve internal political party cadres, while another 11. 4 percent preferred a convention to involve both internal and external political party cadres. Additionally, 8.3 percent of respondents felt a political party convention to select potential presidential candidates was not needed.
What we've heard
According to an internal source at the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the party is still planning to form a coalition with other parties, particularly to embrace voters from Islamic groups. The source, however, was reluctant to mention the five unnamed party members that are currently undergoing selection for the PDI-P's presidential candidate. The source only ensured that these five names were not far from the party members that have appeared in the public.
So far, two party members have been touted as potential presidential candidates, namely House of Representatives Speaker Puan Maharani and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Despite a selection process, the authority to determine the final name rests with PDI-P chair Megawati Soekarnoputri.
A number of Ganjar's supporters are actually starting to rejoice at the latest developments within the PDI-P. For instance, said the source, there was no warning or prohibition made against party members when they shouted "President Ganjar!" at the party's 50th anniversary gathering last month. Moreover, Guntur Soekarno's extended family is also said to be more supportive of Ganjar than Puan.
Meanwhile, another source said that Puan loyalists inside the party were no longer too insistent on pushing her as a presidential candidate. The source added that Puan had scaled down and ceased blusukan (impromptu visits) planned by her supporters. Previously, Puan's supporters who are members of the "Council of Colonels" designed a campaign to increase Puan's electability. "Now, Puan is only focused on her duty as the House's speaker", said the source.
Another factor said to have hindered Puan is her consistently low electability. Even though Puan has carried out various campaigns, her electability rate has never exceeded the 10 to 12 percent mark stipulated by Megawati and President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo. According to the source, Puan's low electability is feared to make it difficult for the PDI-P to find a vice president candidate. "It's still in the single digits", said the source.
[This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia's political and business landscape.]