Dwi Atmanta – The countdown for the Jakarta gubernatorial election has begun, although the provincial poll commission has yet to declare eligible tickets for the race. All candidates have started to publicly make promises and disclose their platforms to win the hearts and minds of 7.5 million Jakarta voters on July 11.

Ever since the poll commission closed registration of candidates on March 19, Jakarta voters have felt the heated rivalry among the aspirants, in particular between incumbent Governor Fauzi Bowo and his contenders. It was unclear who started the fire, but the exchange of words between them has thus far been highlighted both in print and electronic media.

As part of the psychological political battle, Fauzi, better known as Foke, questioned the capability of non-Jakartans to lead the metropolis. He was apparently referring to his potential chief rivals, South Sumatra Governor Alex Noerdin and popular Surakarta mayor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, who respectively are nominated by a coalition led by the Golkar Party and the alliance of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and the Great Indonesia Movement Party.

Fauzi, like any other incumbent, enjoys privileges that he can exploit to cling to power. He must be the most popular candidate, and, in many cases, popularity counts when it comes to elections. A leader will be worried about a decline in his or her popularity rating and will seek every avenue to regain lost ground.

As an incumbent, Fauzi may exhaust the regional budget for pro-people programs in order to win reelection without having to be afraid of allegations of vote buying. He may intensify his visits to the field to meet people and voters without having to face allegations of early campaigning. None of his contenders can file protests against Fauzi for such privileges as long as he is still the governor of Jakarta.

But it is also because of the incumbency that Fauzi is vulnerable to attacks from his challengers. Jokowi, for example, said a leader should not have to be an expert, but he could assign experts to help him deal with the myriad of problems plaguing Jakarta. Fauzi, a German-educated engineer, was known for his campaign tagline "Leave it to the expert" in the 2007 election, but has now come under mounting criticism over flooding and traffic congestion issues that have remained unaddressed.

All contenders will capitalize on Fauzi's unfinished business and all of his campaign promises made in 2007 that he has apparently failed to realize. They have tried, and will continue to try to build public opinion suggesting that Fauzi has not brought enough progress to Jakarta.

For some candidates, however, their early promises to build a better Jakarta will not mean anything if they fail the administrative screening currently conducted by the Jakarta election commission.

The ticket of Alex Noerdin and Nono Sampono will have to prove the coalition behind their nomination is solid following a claim by leaders of the Jakarta chapter of Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party (PDS) that they support Fauzi and his running mate Nachrowi Ramli. The ticket of Faisal Basri-Biem Benyamin and the pair of Hendardji Supandji-Achmad Riza Patria will have to submit thousands of additional signatures demonstrating the people's support – complete with copies of ID cards.

Many have predicted that the upcoming election in Jakarta could be the most exciting selection of a leader if all six pairs qualify. Certain others deem the gubernatorial election as a warm-up for the 2014 presidential election, which will see the ruling coalition break up with the absence of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as the Constitution bans him from running, throwing the race wide open.

Given the fact that Jakarta is an urban society with relatively better education than the rest of the country, hopes abound that voters will decide based on logic rather than popularity or the promises of candidates. It will be smart voters, rather than smart candidates, that determine the outcome of the Jakarta election.

Amid the deafening beat of war drums ahead of the gubernatorial election, Jakarta hosted sporadic rallies to challenge the government's plan to raise subsidized fuel prices. Reminiscent of the May 1998 demonstrations that forced president Soeharto to resign, the Association of Student Executive Boards (BEM) pledged to hold even bigger rallies next week to foil the planned fuel price hike, slated to take effect on April 1, pending the House of Representatives' consent.

Protests against the fuel policy occurred simultaneously across the country, while the police discovered more attempts to hoard subsidized fuel.

The public mood in the lead-up to the April 1 key decision looks identical to the historic regime change in 1998, which was also preceded by a fuel price increase. That was probably the reason why President Yudhoyono shared his concerns about a plot to unseat him and threats against him and his family. It was not the first time Yudhoyono has raised the issue of his safety and, coincidently or not, a few days later the counterterrorism squad shot dead five suspected terrorists in Bali on March 18.

Controversy surrounding the raid in Bali, twice a victim of bomb blasts in 2002 and 2005, centered on why the police were so quick to kill the suspects when their capture alive would have led the police to the terror network operating in the country.

Unfortunately, at such a crucial time for his administration, Yudhoyono is overseas, hoping that when he arrives back on March 29 everything is settled. Who knows?