What a difference a year makes. Just 12 months ago there was so much hope and optimism when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono took the oath of office for his second five-year term. Judging by the nation's mood today, the first anniversary of his second term, it's like we're looking at two different countries. What happened?
Winning the presidential election with more than 60 percent of the votes in round one, Yudhoyono could not have asked for more in starting his second term, and constitutionally his last. He won a carte blanche that would be the envy of any democratically elected leader. It was a ringing endorsement from the people for Yudhoyono to do whatever he deemed fit.
He promised continuity in his campaign, and continuity was what the nation wanted, albeit with a new vice president and a new Cabinet. Yudhoyono gave an eloquent inauguration speech promising to dedicate the next five years to "improving people's prosperity, strengthening democracy and upholding justice". The inauguration and his speech provided an uplifting moment for the nation at a time when much of the rest of the world was still mired in a deep economic recession.
Fast forward 12 months, and that sense of optimism, or what the President described in his inauguration speech as the "can do spirit," is practically gone.
The President's popularity has declined. The Indonesian Survey Institute said his approval rating has fallen from 85 percent at the time of his inauguration to 66 percent last month. A Kompas survey is even more revealing. At the time he was elected in July 2009, 90 percent of the population had a positive image of him.
Today, it is down to 48 percent. Most commentaries on the first anniversary of the SBY-Boediono administration have been negative, perhaps some unfair, as one year is not sufficient to judge whether an administration has failed. The mandate given to Yudhoyono is good for five years. And the last 12 months have not been so bad as to merit a movement to bring down the democratically elected President as his staunchest critics are seeking.
The nation's somber mood accompanying the anniversary is more a reflection of many unfulfilled hopes. This being Yudhoyono's second term rather than his first, people obviously have much higher expectations. His government should have been up and running from the word go.
Instead, we saw the new government bogged down by the Bank Century investigation in its first six months, ironically initiated by Yudhoyono's own coalition partners. This episode forced the sudden departure of reformist finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, which in turn hurt Yudhoyono's own reform credentials.
The Bank Century case also showed how uneasy relations were between the President and the House of Representatives, even though SBY had included six of the nine political parties in his coalition. SBY also had some serious problems on the law enforcement front, which have undermined his antigraft drive. While the economy may seem to be doing well, at least going by macroeconomic indicators, there are serious concerns that dividends have not been shared equally.
Yudhoyono has squandered much of the political capital he had at the start of his second term, and unfortunately with little to show for it. Nobody expected him to deliver on his promises of more prosperity, democracy and justice in just 12 months. But the nation has the right to ask for some signs from their President that Indonesia is making progress, to help build their confidence. This, unfortunately, was something the nation did not get.