Armando Siahaan – Appointing Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie to manage the daily operation of the ruling coalition will do little to stop the party's legislators from continuing to attack government policies, in particular the Bank Century bailout, analysts said on Sunday.
"The consolidation effort through the establishment of the joint secretariat won't grant the government any sway over how the House of Representatives acts," said Ari Dwipayana, a political analyst from Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University.
In theory, he went on, the secretariat could help consolidate coalition parties' stances on particular issues, but that consolidation would become fragmented once it filtered down to individual legislators.
Ari cited last week's selection of a Bank Indonesia deputy governor, where the candidate nominated by the ruling Democratic Party, Krisna Wijaya, lost to Halim Alamsyah, nominated by the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
"The difference between the secretariat's wishes and how it translated to coalition legislators was apparent," he said.
Each lawmaker had their own set of factors to weigh, Ari said. "They need to consider the pressure from their party, their constituents and the public," he said.
Arya Fernandez, an analyst with consulting firm Charta Politika, said the secretariat might not give the Democrats more control over the House, particularly Golkar legislators.
Golkar won the second-most votes in the 2009 elections, giving it a solid mandate to deviate from the coalition, he said. "It will never allow itself to be seen as being helmed by the Democrats," Arya said.
Golkar has always hedged its bets, Arya said, coming across as a loyal coalition partner and at the same time allowing several of its key legislators to criticize government policies.
In the Century case, Golkar broke ranks with the coalition to vote for the resolution – eventually adopted by the House – that the Rp 6.7 trillion ($637 million) bailout was illegal. Golkar also opposed the government's decision to hike subsidized fuel prices in 2008, Arya said.
Center for Strategic and International Studies political analyst Sunny Tanuwidjaja said Golkar's structure differed significantly from that of the more paternalistic Democrats or the PDI-P. In Golkar, the chairman or senior members could not force other members to toe the line, which often led to rifts, he said.
"It's not easy to tame Golkar," Sunny said. "Should there be a future bone of contention between Golkar and the government, Golkar will break ranks again."
A key test for the secretariat will be the efforts by some legislators to invoke the House's right to express an opinion on the Century bailout, which could lead to the possible impeachment of Vice President Boediono.
Five legislators, foremost among them Golkar's Bambang Soesatyo, have started a petition to gather enough support to invoke the right. Of the 128 signatories so far, 26 are Golkar lawmakers, Bambang said.
Following Friday's inaugural meeting of the coalition secretariat, National Mandate Party (PAN) secretary general Taufik Kurniawan said all coalition parties were unanimous about rejecting possible impeachment proceedings. Golkar stalwarts have also said the party's official stance on the Century case was to simply monitor the ongoing criminal investigation.
However, Bambang said last week that he would not cease seeking to invoke the right to express an opinion, despite indications by Golkar veterans that the party was dropping its support for such calls following Aburizal's appointment as secretariat head.
Ari and Arya agreed some Golkar legislators would continue pushing for the right to express an opinion. "This is Golkar hedging its bets," Arya said, adding that while it was a smart move, it was also wise for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to stave off more scathing attacks by promoting Aburizal.
"If the right to express an opinion does make it to a House plenary vote, Golkar's official stance will matter a lot," he said.