Armando Siahaan – The surprising new structure of the Democratic Party-led coalition, of which Golkar Party chairman Aburizal Bakrie is the managing chairman of the just-established joint secretariat, promises a smoother road ahead for the government in pursuing its agenda, analysts say.

But at the same time, serious concerns are being raised over the cost of this political deal.

Closing the Bank Century Case

The most obvious political implication of this new arrangement, according to Sunny Tanuwidjaja, a political analyst from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), is the closure of the Bank Century debacle.

He said with Golkar's more prominent role in the coalition, the party's attacks over the bailout would continue to wane, and would likely iron out a significant ongoing issue: the fate of Vice President Boediono.

Burhanuddin Muhtadi, a political analyst at the Indonesian Survey Institute, said Golkar would no longer be vocal in pushing for the House's right to express an opinion, which is basically an attempt to impeach Boediono, even if Golkar's own Bambang Soesatyo did help initiate it.

He said Golkar was always after Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and not Boediono. Consequently, he said, the remaining opposition parties would not be bold enough to attack Boediono. "Based on political mathematics, it would be difficult," Burhanuddin said.

But Sunny said the political culture in Golkar was different to the Democrats and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), whose leaders, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Sukarnoputri, had the ultimate say over party policy.

"So there will still be members of the party who will be vocal against the Bank Century case in the legislature," he said.

Improved coalition relations?

Amir Syamsuddin, secretary general of the Democratic Party, said the new deal with Golkar indicated his party, as the head of the ruling coalition, had learned that political communication between the coalition members was crucial to ensure optimal government performance.

He said the joint secretariat with Golkar would help when it came to managing strategic and political issues that had the potential to cause damage within the coalition, as with the Bank Century debacle.

But Yunarto Wijaya, a political analyst from Charta Politika, said even though the Aburizal-led joint secretariat would improve communication within the coalition, it would not guarantee a government with a uniform stance on policy implementation.

"There will be dissenting opinion within the government," he said. The new structure, he said, was not so much a means to smooth government performance as a political compromise to promote harmony.

Yunarto said there would still be political conflicts between the coalition parties and ministers. He said because the joint secretariat would be led by the Golkar chairman, it was possible there would be conflicts similar to the battle between Aburizal and Sri Mulyani.

Aburizal's appointment may also affect the government's performance with a growing number of pro-Golkar policies, he added.

Push for legislative agenda

Another potential positive, according to analysts, is an easier time at the House of Representatives.

Sunny said that before the Century case, the government generally had had no major resistance from the House in pursuing its agenda. But since the scandal erupted, the government had faced hurdles in passing things as simple as the 2010 state budget revisions, with some legislators staging boycotts and walk-outs.

"All this time, the relationship between the government and the legislature has been damaged by the Century case, which became the main focus on the political stage," he said. "The attacks by the lawmakers became a disruption to the government's performance."

Burhanuddin said that in return for the new role, Golkar would give Yudhoyono and the government's legislative agenda full support in the House. "In terms of political mathematics, it will be easier to pass any bill in the legislature, including the controversial ones," he said.

One bill that may be affected is the JPSK bill, which the government has been trying to pass in order to give legitimacy to the Bank Century bailout. "With the JPSK bill passed, the House could justify the government's formal procedural violation over the bailout," Burhanuddin said.

He added that up to this point, Sri Mulyani and Boediono only had a government regulation in lieu of law, or perrpu, to justify their actions on Bank Century.

Too much power?

But Burhanuddin warned that Aburizal's new role could influence the outcome of the tax evasion cases against Bakrie companies, which were closely scrutinized under Sri Mulyani's watch as finance minister.

"In line with Aburizal's power rise, I'm concerned that the problem of Bakrie's tax evasion will evaporate just like that, especially if Sri Mulyani's replacement is someone who is close to Golkar."

Burhanuddin also questioned how much sway the new title would give Aburizal, fearing he would become too powerful. "Aburizal has said he has the right to call the ministers, with the approval of the president," he said.

Burhanuddin fears Aburizal's new position is so powerful that it will affect Yudhoyono's authority as president and how he runs the country. "We don't want the cabinet ministers to bow down to Aburizal," he said. "His position is almost like becoming a prime minister."