Camelia Pasandaran & Nivell Rayda – The political marriage between the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party seems to be heading toward a messy divorce.
However, even as President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrat-led ruling coalition seems to be adjusting to the idea of letting the relationship go, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) appears to want to keep the partnership going, a number of political analysts told the Jakarta Globe on Sunday.
A political analyst from the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), Burhanuddin Muhtadi, said the PKS had nothing to gain by leaving the coalition.
"I think the PKS still wants to hold on to the coalition," he said. "The PKS gets so much in return through sharing power in government. I don't think it will leave the coalition unless it is literally kicked out."
Burhanuddin said he thought the PKS, which helped initiate the House of Representatives inquiry into the Bank Century bailout late last year, had only been seeking to renegotiate its position in the coalition.
Despite frequent warnings from Democrat lawmakers, the PKS and Golkar continue to be the harshest critics of Vice President Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who they hold responsible for the Rp 6.7 trillion ($717 million) bailout.
PKS lawmaker Andi Rachmat went as far as to say that those most responsible for the bailout could face capital punishment.
"Should the president believe that the criticism [from the PKS] has crossed the line, he might decide to cut relations with the PKS and let them go [from the coalition]," Burhanuddin said. "The final decision is not up to the PKS. It is in the hands of the president."
The Democrats, the analyst said, are working more toward protecting the relationship with Golkar, rather than with the PKS. He pointed out that the Democrats had not shied away from attacking the PKS.
Burhanuddin said it was telling that Yudhoyono's staff planned to report PKS lawmaker Mukhamad Misbakhun to the police for his alleged ownership of fictitious letters of credit from Bank Century.
"For me, that is a signal that of the two 'naughty kids' in the coalition, SBY has given up on the PKS, but still expects to communicate with Golkar," he said.
Burhanuddin said the PKS could lose some or all of its four cabinet seats in any reshuffle by Yudhoyono. The president recently publicly criticized Communication and Information Technology Minister Tifatul Sembiring, from the PKS, for his ministry's plan to issue a regulation restricting multimedia content.
Arie Sujito, a political analyst from Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, said the recent moves by the PKS surrounding the bailout probe were probably an attempt to show it still had some bargaining power.
"The coalition between the Democrats and the PKS is not too solid," Arie said. "I believe that if [the PKS] stays strongly critical of the coalition, Yudhoyono will kick it out of the coalition. Golkar has a better, much stronger position to be Yudhoyono's partner."
University of Indonesia political analyst Arbi Sanit said the PKS would never leave the coalition willingly, and was simply using the Bank Century probe to retaliate against the Democrats.
Before the 2009 presidential election, the PKS was pushing hard for Hidayat Nur Wahid, a senior PKS politician and former head of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), to become Yudhoyono's running mate.
Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, however, ignored the PKS and tapped Boediono, then governor of the central bank, to run with Yudhoyono. The PKS responded strongly to the decision and postponed its official endorsement of the Yudhoyono-Boediono campaign until the 11th hour.
"The PKS are hypocrites," Arbi said. "On the one hand, it is strong about the bailout but it also can't risk losing strategic government positions by leaving the ruling coalition. Even if it stands firm on its decision to oppose the bailout, would its solve anything or make the PKS a hero?"
Apart from Tifatul Sembiring, the other three PKS politicians in the cabinet are Agriculture Minister Suswono, Social Affairs Minister Salim Segaf Al Jufri and Research and Technology Minister Suharna Surapranata.
University of Indonesia political analyst Rocky Gerung said the relationship between the Democrats and the PKS was past the point of no return. "We have reached a point where diplomacy no longer works," he said. "The Democrats will be forced to use the last resort of unravelling the PKS's dirty secrets."