Ary Hermawan, Jakarta – As the administration approaches its 100th day in office, yet another polling body has given the President a middling approval rating amid a slew of controversy.
The study by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), to be published Wednesday, rates President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's popularity at 68.9 percent.
The report comes on the heels of a finding by another polling body, Indobarometer, which gave Yudhoyono an approval rating of 75 percent – a 15 percent drop from its August 2009 survey.
Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) political analyst Arbi Sanit said the President had steered clear of the Bank Century fallout, since the investigation into the bailout was still underway.
"There are indications [he may be implicated], but the evidence isn't strong enough," he said. "He hasn't been proven guilty."
Yudhoyono, he added, had also struck a chord with the public by reinstating Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) deputy chairmen Bibit Samad Rianto and Chandra M. Hamzah, who had been suspended for alleged bribery. "There were doubts, but he managed to remove them," Arbi said.
Indobarometer suggested the framing of Bibit and Chandra, the murder case implicating former KPK chief Antasari Azhar and the Century case contributed to the slight fall in Yudhoyono's popularity, with 69 percent, 79 percent and 77 percent of the people they interviewed followed the cases.
LSI senior researcher Burhanudin Muhtadi said the President's performance in the first 100 days of his second term had been clouded by the three scandals, which had hogged the media spotlight during that time. "Those cases caused his public approval rating to decline, though not too sharply," he told The Jakarta Post.
Burhanudin added this decline was most marked among middle-class respondents, a segment he said comprised urban and educated people with access to media, and who tended to be more critical of the government. He indicated most of those satisfied with the President's performance were from the grass roots.
Careful handling of the Century case would be needed if Yudhoyono wanted to stay popular, he warned.
"The middle class, though small in number, could cause instability for Yudhoyono," Burhanudin said. "Should he fail to address this issue, they could stir up social movements at the grassroots level."
The question of whether to retain Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati will also weigh on Yudhoyono's standing, the pollsters suggest.
Indobarometer's survey showed 43 percent of respondents believed the minister and former Bank Indonesia governor Boediono, now the Vice President, should be held responsible for the Rp 6.76 trillion (US$716 million) bailout of Century. By contrast, only 10 percent believed Yudhoyono was culpable.
A parliamentary inquiry into the bailout is currently underway, with legislators set to issue their findings as soon as next week.
Burhanudin said he believed Yudhoyono would have to put his popularity on the line to protect the finance minister and Vice President.
"I believe there'll be a trade-off," he said. "If he thinks he has enough political capital, he may choose to keep Mulyani and Boediono. "It wouldn't hurt his rating much, I don't believe; it'd still be above 50 percent."