Jacqueline Hicks, Jakarta – Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's announcement late on Wednesday of his government's new cabinet was a function of a complicated political calculation. The new ministerial lineup has been met with both optimism and reservation due to its mix of respected technocrats and political appointees with little expertise over their given portfolios.

Yet the overall performance of Yudhoyono's freshly re-elected government will depend on much more than the new ministers' capabilities. As his last term demonstrated, the relationship between the government and parliament can make or break the passage of reformist legislation. Where government policy was often pigeonholed or watered down by the House of Representatives (DPR) during Yudhoyono's first five-year term, this time around it appears he has the numbers to push his agenda with more force.

Over the past five years, political parties often postured on populist issues rather than undertake the hard work of ironing out the details of complex reform legislation. Proposed new laws on the corruption court, special economic zones and judicial power were backlogged while DPR members jostled to be seen as sufficiently Islamic or economically nationalist. When the DPR's term was set to expire, dozens of bills were suddenly rushed in parliamentary sessions that failed to meet quorums.

There will likely be a chance to improve some of these laws in the next session. A coalition of anti-corruption nongovernmental organizations has already said they will in the coming weeks bring the corruption court law to judicial review. With greater parliamentary numbers, Yudhoyono's government may even bid to revisit the controversial labor law, which was blocked by the DPR in 2006 because it was considered too pro-business.

With 26% of the legislature's seats, Yudhoyono's Democrat Party controls nearly four times the number it did during his first term. If the four Islamic parties which supported the president's election campaign are added, the ruling coalition has an automatic parliamentary majority of 56%. Another boost came recently when the Golkar party, which had split from Yudhoyono to field its own presidential candidate during the elections, opted to return to the ruling fold.

With their assumed numbers, the ruling coalition accounts for a commanding 74% of parliamentary seats. Aburizal Bakrie, a Cabinet minister in Yudhoyono's first term whose family maintains sprawling business interests, won Golkar's chairmanship two weeks ago. In a conciliatory gesture, he promptly elevated Rizal Mallarangeng, a former senior strategist in Yudhoyono's election campaign, to Golkar's executive board.

The allure of power has also drawn in at least half of the country's top political couple – Taufik Kiemas and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri. Kiemas was supported by the Democrat Party to win the prestigious but largely symbolic post as speaker of the upper house (MPR). Megawati, who placed second at the July presidential poll and legally challenged the election results, is Yudhoyono's arch rival and the two are known to share strained personal relations.

Both Kiemas and Megawati's daughter, Puan, had been vocal in their support for PDI-P members to be included into Yudhoyono's cabinet, in direct contrast to Megawati's opposition. Despite reports of last-minute negotiations, Megawati stood firm and refused to sanction any such cooperation. She did, however, politically hedge by declaring her party a "critical and strategic partner of the government".

What this all spells for the PDI-P's internal politics will become clearer in the coming days, but one can guess at its impact on Megawati's familial relations. In any case, Kiemas and Puan's rapprochement with Yudhoyono means that there is likely to be much more cooperation between the two parties than in the previous five years, when they were often at loggerheads in parliament.

Rule by consensus

The government may also find it easier to push through legislation as it now has more influence within the DPR's 11 commissions, where parliamentary debates and decisions take place. In contrast to the chaotic scenes of 2004, when a method to distribute the commission leadership positions could not be agreed, a recently passed amendment to the law on the administration of parliament gave the government more control over the process.

Commission leaders can heavily influence the passage of bills through scheduling debates, deciding on the agenda and conferring with other parliamentary bodies. The commission chairmen were chosen one week before the cabinet announcement and could be just as significant to pushing reform as top ministerial postings.

The Democrat Party took the leadership of three commissions, including two key ones on law and energy. The four main Islamic parties in Yudhoyono's coalition were each allocated the chairmanship of one commission, while PDI-P and Golkar, which placed second and third respectively at this year's legislative polls, each gained two.

Golkar secured two relatively influential commissions – one on internal affairs and another on investment – after what one Golkar member called a "consolidation meeting" between the Democrat Party and new Golkar chairman Bakrie. Political horse-trading was also more than likely behind the appointment of a PDI-P member to head another high-profile commission on finance and banking.

The moderate Islamic party, the PKB, took leadership of the commission that oversees religious and social affairs. The commission was at the heart of debates on the controversial anti-pornography law which threatened to criminalize kissing in public, erotic dancing and showing certain parts of the body.

Although it was a member of Yudhoyono's own party who headed the commission that pushed for the controversial bill, the PKB's recent appointment is being viewed by some as a move to counterbalance the inclusion of Suryadharma Ali, the head of the more conservative PPP Islamic party, as minister for religion in the new cabinet.

If this all seems like a cynical power share among a small group of political elites, that's because in some ways it is. The deal-making in the division of commissions and the Democrat's overtures towards Golkar and PDI-P, even when the president already had a clear parliamentary majority, point in that direction.

That's partially because the vast majority of bills are passed through a process of negotiation and consensus rather than through a democratic vote. This means that the government must obtain as much parliamentary support as possible to assure the passage, without major amendments, of its legislative program. This style of consensus politics makes it difficult to hold parties accountable for their actions. Without a vote tally, it is often impossible to know what a party supported or blocked as many internal discussions are closed to the public.

To be sure, Yudhoyono will not have it all his way no matter how qualified his ministers or how many parties he has on his side. Past experience shows that coalitions are highly volatile and Yudhoyono's is likewise bound to face tensions and dissent. To mitigate those risks, he has introduced "political contracts" for his coalition partners to sign, but it is a symbolic gesture with no legal binding.

Yet there are already signs that the new parliamentary session could be smoother for the government. The passage by the outgoing parliament in September of the 2010 budget bill effectively dissolved potential blocks on one of the most highly politicized issues of the last session – Yudhoyono's drive to reduce market-distorting fuel price subsidies. If the global price of crude oil rises above the assumptions built into the 2010 state budget, the government has the authority to raise fuel prices by as much as 10% without seeking DPR consent.

The next five years will undoubtedly witness new kinds of parliamentary delays and blockages resulting from the seen and unseen intricate dynamics of Indonesian politics. However, the level of support for the new government, from both inside and outside the political establishment, gives it an unprecedented opportunity to build on the stability already achieved to push through important reforms.

[Dr Jacqueline Hicks is a political analyst based in Jakarta. She may be reached at hicks.jacky@gmail.com.]