Camelia Pasandaran – Analysts and activists are expressing concern about the health of Indonesia's nascent democracy after the president's Democratic Party and its coalition have gained near-dominant strength as a result of this year's elections, warning of a possible return to the authoritarian days of the New Order era.
Vice President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party was expected to serve in opposition to President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party and its wide coalition. But last week Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Aburizal Bakrie was elected as its new chairman – a move seen bringing the party closer to the Democrats.
The appointment of Yudhoyono ally Rizal Mallarangeng to a senior position within the Golkar Party has strengthened that perception.
Meanwhile, Democrat support also helped Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) heavyweight Taufik Kiemas, the husband of former President Megawati Sukarnoputri, attain the chairmanship of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) – a move analysts say was a political investment.
"Democrats are investing in a political favor for the PDI-P because there's no such thing as a free lunch in politics," Lili Romli, a political analyst from Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), told the Jakarta Globe.
Kalla and Megawati were Yudhoyono's opponents during July's presidential election.
The Democrats have gained a strong hand in the House of Representatives, an institution intended as a check on the powers of the executive branch.
Representatives from the Democrat-led coalition, plus Golkar representatives, hold more than 90 percent of the seats in the legislature.
The Indonesian Parliamentary Center has warned that the dominance of the coalition may turn the legislature into a rubber stamp, as it was during the Suharto era.
"Being critical is needed. It should not just nod to all government policies," IPC director Sulastio told the Jakarta Globe. "If it is not critical, the House will not be carrying out its checks-and-balances function."
Political analysts are eagerly awaiting the names of the new cabinet members, scheduled to be announced on Oct. 21, a day after Yudhoyono and Vice President-elect Boediono are inaugurated.
Political activist Fadjroel Rachman said Yudhoyono has successfully consolidated his power in the executive and legislative branches, and should therefore use his political leverage to name the most deserving ministers to his cabinet.
"He complained several times during the previous administration that he was not fully supported by the legislature," Fadjroel said.
"This is actually the right time for him to compose his own cabinet without any intervention. [He should name] a strong and qualified cabinet."
But Fadjroel also warned that Indonesia may see a return to the era of authoritarianism.
"There is a big possibility that the government will be a semi-authoritarian government with a dictator for a leader," he said. "The democracy that we have tried to build after the New Order era may dissolve into a new form of authoritarianism."
Other analysts were a bit less alarmed. Daniel Sparingga, a political analyst from Airlangga University, said there was no reason to worry just yet. He said authoritarianism would only return if there was a systematic effort to weaken the House and civil society. "I don't see it that phenomenon now," he said.
The Democratic Party rejected suggestions that its dominance spelled the beginning of a return to the days under Suharto.
"Those fears are exaggerated," said Anas Urbaningrum, the head of the Democratic Party faction in House. "It's impossible to return to the New Order era. The political configuration and spirit have been changed and civil society has developed," Anas said.
Golkar's Idrus Marham also insisted on Sunday that despite the coalition's strength, his party will not abandon its function as a voice of criticism.