Sara Schonhardt, Jakarta – Police dealt a blow to Indonesia's main terrorism network Thursday after confirming the death of top-ranked Islamic militant Noordin Mohammed Top following a raid on a home in Central Java.
The raid was carried out by Detachment 88, the anti-terror arm of the national police force which has received training and assistance from the United States and Australian governments. It represented the counter-terror squad's latest attempt to root out the al-Qaeda-linked network, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI).
JI is believed to have orchestrated the twin bomb attacks on the Jakarta-based JW Marriott and Ritz Carlton hotels on July 17. The bombings were the first in nearly four years after a string of attacks that started in 2002 at a popular nightclub in Bali that killed more than 200 people, mostly foreign tourists.
Three other terror suspects were captured in Thursday's operation, a police spokesman told reporters. A series of raids and arrests have occurred across the country since the hotel bombings that killed seven and wounded more than 50 people.
The dragnet has led to the death and detention of several more suspects, including migrant workers suspected of traveling to the Middle East to bring back funding for terror operations, a Garuda airline technician and a reputed high-level associate of Top's.
Analysts say Thursday's high-profile hit is good news for Detachment 88, which has had a difficult time winning support among a population that is typically suspicious of police operations.
"This is a major achievement in Indonesia's counterterrorism efforts," said Rizal Sukma, executive director of Indonesia's Center for Strategic and International Studies. He said that Top's killing eliminated a major threat before United States President Barack Obama's expected visit to Indonesia in November.
Taken together, the developments have increased expectations of what the police can achieve, said Rizal, expressing his hope that the internationally lauded operation will improve the morality and credibility of the police, an institution long associated with corruption and inefficiency.
After an early morning firefight on Thursday, the siege made headlines across the world and immediately stirred rumors that one of Southeast Asia's most wanted and dangerous militants was killed in the attack.
Authorities claimed two separate but similar operations on August 8 that helped foil a plot to kill President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono raised expectations carried over the media that Top had been killed. When police later searched the sites of the attacks, however, Noordin was not among the three killed.
That apparent failure stirred debate over the need for cooperation between the police and the military (TNI). In mid-August, Yudhoyono said that the Indonesian military deserved a "place" in the fight against terrorism, but the effort remained in the hands of civilian law enforcement.
Thursday's raid comes after weeks of intelligence work by the police and civil authorities, said Noor Huda Ismail, a terrorism expert and vice president of security consultant Sekurindo Global Consulting. "[Top's] death suggests that there is no need for TNI to play an internal security role in Indonesia," Rizal said.
Ikrar Nusa Bakti, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, raised some suspicions about the timing of the operation when he told the Jakarta Globe that he hoped the raid was not specifically aimed at revamping the police's image, which is currently suffering over a dispute between senior police officers and the independent Corruption Eradication Commission after the latter accused police of trying to discredit its mandate.
Still, Indonesia has done well to stem terrorist attacks in this majority Muslim nation of 240 million since Yudhoyono took office in 2004 on a platform that included tougher anti-terror initiatives. Compared to his predecessor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, Yudhoyono has taken a more proactive approach to rooting out militants.
For instance, discussions on national security now tend more toward addressing the root causes of terrorist attacks. "My concern is not so much in catching Noordin Top," Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono said during a recent security panel discussion with the country's top terrorism experts. "I am more concerned with his example as a Robin Hood figure."
Juwono said poverty and unequal development marginalizes certain sectors of society, making economically frustrated young men targets for recruitment among extremist groups. Top was known for recruiting his members from different disaffected groups around Indonesia's main island of Java.
According to Sidney Jones, a Southeast Asia analysts with the International Crisis Group (ICG), family links may be even more important than economic factors. Schools, medical clinics and even publishing houses have been shown to have significant connections to Top's network, a splinter group of JI.
The ICG mentions in particular the magazine an-Najah and Muqowama, a company that reputedly produced al-Qaeda videos with Indonesian subtitles. At the end of August, police also arrested Mohamad Jibril, owner of publishing company Ar-Rahmah Media, on suspicion that he helped arrange funding for the July 17 bombings, according to ICG.
The house targeted in Thursday's attack belonged to a young couple, both teachers at an Islamic boarding school, local village chief Suratim told the Associated Press. Although analysts are uncertain about the actual size and reach of Top's network, ICG predicts it is much bigger and more sophisticated than many analysts suspect.
Jones estimated in a recent panel discussion that Top's network had a minimum of 30-40 followers. She also said that radical groups known to recruit in Central Sulawesi have expertise in sharp shooting and targeted assassinations.
Others say the group is more a collection of small factions that are not particularly cohesive. "The problem police are now facing is the presence of splinter groups that lack single coordination, making them harder to root out," Rizal said.
The ad hoc nature of Top's support base makes it difficult to track, and, say many analysts, requires additional support from the local police and community leaders to monitor the operations of radical groups in their areas. Top provided the ideological inspiration that drove recruitment into his network, said Rizal, speculating about the impact his death would have on the future of terrorism in Indonesia.
"Of course, there are still a number of elements at large and who knows what they've learned," he said.
[Sara Schonhardt is a freelance writer based in Jakarta, Indonesia. She has lived and worked in Southeast Asia for six years and has a master's degree in international affairs from Columbia University.]