Ten years ago tomorrow, the people of East Timor voted for independence from Indonesia in a popular referendum sanctioned by the United Nations.
The immediate consequence of the vote was an outbreak of violent clashes orchestrated by pro-Indonesian militia and elements of the Indonesian military. About 1400 people were killed and an estimated 300,000 East Timorese fled over the border into neighbouring West Timor.
The killings triggered a humanitarian and foreign policy crisis, with a UN peacekeeping force dispatched to restore law and order and a UN administrator, Sergio Vieira de Mello, appointed to oversee the country's transition to independence.
That independence was formally negotiated about three years later, but East Timor has yet to shake off its inauspicious start to nationhood.
The continued presence of UN and Australian troops in East Timor is compelling evidence of the inability of the country's political elite to achieve anything like stable and efficient government.
In 2006, the Fretilin Government of Mari Alkatiri collapsed after widespread unrest in the capital Dili prompted by the dismissal of 600 mutinous soldiers, and last year a disaffected former soldier went close to assassinating President Jose Ramos-Horta. The present coalition government led by Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao is weak and ineffectual, and said to be racked by corruption and cronyism.
The economic outlook is little better. East Timor remains one of the world's poorest nations (per capita GDP is about $A924), despite royalties from extensive oil and gas reserves on the Timor shelf.
Unemployment is about 20 per cent in the capital, Dili, but approaches 50 or 60 per cent in rural areas. Social indicators such as life expectancy and infant mortality are at Third World levels, despite the presence of many non-government organisations in East Timor and the infusion of tens of millions of dollars in foreign aid.
There is a general lack of respect for the rule of law, too, most likely stemming from the fact that the police force is poorly trained and administered, and the court system under-resourced.
Even East Timor's class divisions, probably expressed most eloquently by the political elite's insistence in conducting government business in Portuguese when most East Timorese speak Tetum, are dauntingly wide.
Yet, despite the troubles of the past decade, tomorrow's anniversary is cause for some celebration. The UN is preparing to draw down its peace-keeping contingent next year, and the Australian Government is about to begin talking to the UN and the East Timorese Government about reducing its commitment of troops.
More importantly, petroleum-related revenues doubled last year to $US2.8 billion ($A3.3 billion). East Timor's petroleum fund, into which all gas and oil revenues are being invested for future use, now totals about $A5 billion, and a decision to boost investment in the Greater Sunrise oil and gas field, expected later this year, should add to the coffers.
That said, the exploitation of the Greater Sunrise and Bayu-Undan oil and gas fields have created no new jobs in East Timor, the energy companies involved preferring to site related infrastructure in Darwin rather than strife-torn Dili.
Greater foreign investment (and job creation) in East Timor is clearly contingent on better governance, and while there is no doubting Prime Minister Gusmao's good intentions, his record of decision-making to date does not inspire confidence.
Indeed, the Government's decision to buy three 60 megawatt power plants from China for $A476 million when Dili's power needs are just 12.5 megawatts provoked considerable disquiet. Only about 5 per cent of households in East Timor have power.
East Timor's long struggle for viability as a nation has been replicated in other countries which have attained independence after long battles against colonial powers. The skills needed to successfully wage a war of liberation are not the same as those required to run an efficient, democratic government.
Inevitably, however, the heroes of independence struggles end up dominating post-independence political life. Moreover, the authority and respect they command as heroes of liberation shields them from the criticism and scrutiny that is so essential to good governance.
It's unlikely East Timor will achieve the status of fully-functioning democracy until after the departure of Gusmao, Horta and the other veterans of independence. Whether it can manage the transition from client state to viable economy is more problematic. The country's small size and lack of natural resources suggest it will be an uphill struggle, even with the advantages of a petroleum fund.
That means East Timor will remain a foreign policy headache for Australia for the foreseeable future, not just because of its weak government apparatus and its continuing dependence on Australian military aid, but because without that aid and comfort there is a real risk the country will drift into China's orbit.