Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta – The entry of Vice President and Golkar chairman Jusuf Kalla in the presidential election is expected to turn it into a three-horse race, and could force President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to a runoff.
Centre for Strategic International Studies (CSIS) political analyst J. Kristiadi and Indo Barometer executive director Muhammad Qodari said Kalla could pose a significant threat and possibly even upset Yudhoyono in the presidential race.
"Kalla's candidacy will make the competition tougher, with the incumbent Vice President claiming the credit for his role in the government's achievements over the last five year," Kristiadi told The Jakarta Post on Sunday. "Voters who recognize the achievements could shift their support toward Kalla."
Kalla announced his presidential bid last week. He also unveiled his running mate, Wiranto from the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), making them the first pair to declare their candidacy for the July 8 presidential poll.
Yudhoyono has confirmed his bid but has yet to name a running mate, although during an Asian Development Bank (ADB) meeting in Bali on Sunday he said he had already decided on one.
However, he refused to mention any names, with State Secretary Hatta Radjasa of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Bank Indonesia Governor Boediono being touted as the strongest candidates.
The Indonesian Democratic party of Struggle (PDI-P), currently second in the legislative election counts, has nominated its chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri. The party has not decided on her running mate either, although Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) is considered the most likely choice.
Kristiadi said Kalla's team should work hard to change the public perception that the government's achievements were down to Yudhoyono, as he had claimed in TV ads. He added Kalla should also tout his success in bringing peace to restive regions, including in Aceh, Poso and Maluku, to draw more votes.
Indo Barometer's Qodari said the opportunity for Kalla to steal from Yudhoyono's voter base was wide open. "The election has become unpredictable with Kalla's entry, because he is part of the government and can lay claim its achievements to aid his candidacy," he told the Post.
He added the popularity of presidential candidates would change rapidly depending on campaign strategies.
Golkar decided to nominate Kalla as its presidential candidate after coalition talks with Yudhoyono's Democratic Party were called off.
Kalla said Saturday he had on three occasions asked Yudhoyono whether he would be picked once again as the incumbent's running mate, before deciding to part from the alliance with the Democratic Party.
"No decision was given by Pak Yudhoyono. It means he rejected (me)," Kalla said in Makassar as quoted by kompas.com. "So it's not me who pulled away from the SBY-JK (Yudhoyono-Kalla) coalition."