Andra Wisnu, Jakarta – Only nine of 38 parties contesting the April 9 elections will get seats at the House of Representatives in Jakarta, according to a number of recent surveys.
Studies by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), the Soegeng Sarijadi Syndicate (SSS) and the Information Research Institute (LRI) all have President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party as the likely winner of the upcoming polls.
The eight other parties are the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP), the National Mandate Party (PAN), Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the People's Conscience (Hanura) Party.
"The rest of the pack won't even pass the 2.5 percent parliamentary threshold and so will not have legislators at the House or be able to compete in the 2014 polls," said SSS executive director Soegeng Sarijadi.
The Democratic Party finances the LSI's surveys, while the LRI is linked to Vice President and Golkar Party chairman Jusuf Kalla. The SSS is reportedly connected with Prabowo Subianto's Gerindra.
The LSI survey, conducted in March with 2486 respondents in 33 provinces, found 26.6 percent of respondents supported the Democratic Party, while an SSS survey held during the same period with 2502 respondents in 33 provinces gave the party 20.2 percent. An LRI survey with 2066 respondents in 33 provinces found 20.86 percent chose the Democratic Party.
Both the LSI and SSS put the PDI-P and Golkar in second and third place, while the LRI put Golkar in second place and the PDI-P in third.
The LSI survey gave the PDI-P 14.5 percent of votes and Golkar 13.7 percent. The SSS survey gave the PDI-P and Golkar 13.5 and 12.2 percent, respectively, while the LRI poll gave Golkar and the PDI-P 18.05 and 16.31 percent, respectively.
Political analysts said the results showed how new and emerging parties that had sprung up since the fall of Soeharto had begun replacing parties left over from Soeharto's era.
"There's a political transition going on now, and parties from the New Order era are losing their orientation," said Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) political analyst Syamsuddin Harris.
University of Indonesia sociology professor Tamrin Amal Tomagola said the results supported the possibility of a so-called "golden triangle" coalition between Golkar, the PDI-P and the PPP to counter the Democratic Party's popularity.
Paramadina University rector Anies Baswedan said the results pointed out the failure to build an effective government. "From the poll numbers and possible coalitions, it's clear the House will again be too fragmented to get government moving." (hwa)