Stephen Fitzpatrick, Jakarta – The growing rift in the Indonesian leadership is heading for chasm proportions, with an election strategy meeting today between Vice-President Jusuf Kalla and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri in a central Jakarta restaurant.

The talks will come as new data shows President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono pulling well ahead of his bitter rival Ms Megawati as preferred leader – but only if he keeps Mr Kalla as his deputy in the coming poll.

The data suggests a Yudhoyono-Kalla leadership ticket could sneak over the line in the presidential elections in July, eliminating the need for a run-off vote in October.

But the parliamentary polls next month remain the subject of frantic coalition negotiations, with control of the house and support for a strong presidential nomination at stake.

Mr Yudhoyono's Democratic Party stands to win 21.5 per cent of seats in the 560-seat legislative assembly, according to the data released yesterday.

That would put the Democrats over the 20 per cent threshold to nominate a presidential ticket in their own right, rather than having to rely on a coalition such as the one with Golkar that produced the Yudhoyono-Kalla team in 2004.

The data, which showed almost 23 per cent of voters still undecided, had Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle achieving 15.6 per cent in the house and Mr Kalla's Golkar winning 14.3 per cent.

Discussions about a potential coalition deal between the two will be high on the menu at today's meal. However the feast will come at a price, researchers warned.

"If they (Ms Megawati and Mr Kalla) go for a coalition, this needs to be calculated as a significant political conspiracy," said one of the researchers, Sunny Tanuwidjaja.

Analyst Syamsuddin Haris said that the more energetically Mr Kalla manoeuvred, the more he would reduce the number of votes going to Mr Yudhoyono.