Sunny Tanuwidjaja, Jakarta – The latest survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) seems to confirm a pattern of declining support for Islamic political parties since the reform era. Using a simple typology, Islamic political parties received 40 percent of total votes in the 1999 elections. In the 2004 election, votes for Islamic political parties decreased to 30 percent.

According to the surveys done by LSI in 2005, 2006, 2007 and now in 2008, support for Islamic political parties has stagnated at around 17 percent.

There are three interesting issues from this survey that should be examined by the public.

First, the claim that a Pancasilais image is likely to get more votes is not necessarily true (LSI uses the term Pancasilais political parties as a substitute for the term nationalist political parties).

Second, the "cannibalism" among Islamic political parties needs to be further tested using empirical data. Cannibalism among Islamic political parties refers to the expansion of one Islamic political party by taking voters away from another.

Third, although there is some decline in support for Islamic political parties, they continue to enjoy more than enough to make them important players in national politics.

The claim that a Pancasilais platform will get more votes is problematic for three reasons.

First, the survey done by LSI, and many surveys from other institutions, shows that welfare is the main concern among voters. Voters will tend to support parties they believe are capable of increasing people's welfare.

The latest LSI survey shows that political parties considered able to increase people's welfare are coincidentally the ones known to be Pancasilais.

So, it is very possible that the Pancasilais image is not really what will garner support, but instead public perception regarding a party's abilities to improve welfare.

Second, the claim is problematic because the empirical evidence shows that many political parties perceived to be Pancasilais are not improving their political standing. This shows that a Pancasilais image does not guarantee votes.

Third, the claim is problematic because it contradicts the survey's conclusion, which suggests that Indonesian voters have become more rational in the sense that ideology and primordial factors are no longer important in affecting the voters' political choice.

Another conclusion from the latest LSI survey that needs to be reconsidered is the cannibalism among Islamic political parties. One specific point that it makes is that the increase in support for the PKS is due to its success in getting voters to switch from other Islamic political parties.

On the one hand this is true because in several areas the decline of the PAN and the PPP directly correlated to increased support for the PKS. However, a CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) survey conducted last May shows that the new PKS supporters are highly diverse. The survey result even shows that most of the PKS's new supporters are individuals who voted for nationalist political parties in the 2004 election.

The CSIS survey finds that among the respondents who state that they will choose the PKS in the 2009 election, 50 percent of voted for them in the 2004 election. About 30 percent are voters who previously voted for Pancasilais political parties, and the other 20 percent previously voted for Islamic political parties. Thus, even if the decline of other Islamic parties is one reason for the rise of PKS, it is voters switching from Pancasilais parties who contributed the most.

The above assessment demonstrates that the movement of voters is not a one-way street. There is a significant movement of voters from Pancasilais to Islamic political parties and vice versa.

Within a multiparty system, the current level of support enjoyed by Islamic political parties, although in decline, is still very significant.

It seems that the three biggest Pancasilais political parties (i.e. the PDI-P, The Golkar Party and The Democratic Party, will not support the same presidential and vice presidential candidates. Instead, two of the three will form a coalition against the other one. This scenario will make political parties like the PKS and the PKB attractive coalition partners.

Even if a coalition between Pancasilais and Islamic political parties failed to win the presidential election, with 20 to 30 percent of seats, Islamic political parties are very appealing partners for an opposition coalition. Thus Islamic political parties remain a very important political force in Indonesia.

In addition, there is something of a paradox in Indonesian politics; despite declining support for religious political parties and the dominance of Pancasilais parties, the government remains reluctant to take action against criminal acts in the name of religion. The passing of regional sharia bylaws are seldom stopped and the government has failed to act against those who suppress the religious freedom of others.

If it is true that Indonesian voters have become more rational, it no longer makes sense for political parties to create a Pancasilais image. Instead, they should concentrate on developing social programs that can help improve the welfare of the people.

Based on the above evaluation, what needs to be tested in future surveys is whether support for political parties with an Pancasilais image is due to that image, or because of the public perception of their ability to increase welfare and the quality of their programs.

It could be possible that support for the PDI-P has more to do with the charisma of Megawati, and support for The Democratic Party is helped by the popularity of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Support for PDI-P and Golkar may be due to the high loyalty of their traditional voters. The support Golkar currently enjoys probably has a lot to do with its well-established organizational and party structure, which have penetrated deeply into many regions.

[The writer is a researcher at the Politics and Social Change Department at CSIS Jakarta, and is currently a PhD candidate at Northern Illinois University. He can be reached at sunny_tanuwidjaja@csis.or.id.]