Fabio Scarpello – Fiery campaigner Ceu Lopes, 50, was active during her fledgling nation's 24-year struggle against the occupation by Indonesia. From Australia, where she has lived since 1985, the founder of the NGO Timor Aid, campaigned tirelessly, raised funds and often travelled covertly to the jungles of her native island, where she met guerilla fighters, sharing their fears and hopes for a better future.

Yet, almost eight years after the 1999 referendum that ended the Indonesian occupation and five years after the declaration of independence, most of those hopes remain unfulfilled. "I am utterly disappointed with the current situation," Mrs Lopes said.

In April and May last year, the country was rocked by violence. Nearly 40 people were killed and 150,000 forced to flee their homes as the national army and police disintegrated. A change in government and deployment of foreign peacekeepers brought a veneer of security, but ongoing violence means nearly 70,000 people are still too afraid to return home.

It is generally acknowledged that the violence sprung from scars left by the trauma of Indonesia's occupation. More than 200,000 people died during the occupation, tainted by widespread abuses.

Moreover, most observers agree that the UN's hasty departure and Australia's foreign policy have been two aggravating factors. The UN administered East Timor between 1999 and 2002, but left while the country's institutions were still weak. Australia's refusal to abide by international law in regards to disputed gas and oil fields has deprived the tiny state of much-needed income at a crucial time.

Mitigating factors aside, most of the blame falls on the Timorese leadership. "Our leaders proved to be incompetent and arrogant," said Mrs Lopes, who knows most of them personally. "Throughout the years they have been more concerned about strengthening their power than working for the good of the country."

The leading characters in East Timor's politics are President Xanana Gusmco, Prime Minister Josi Ramos Horta and former prime minister Mari Alkatiri, who is also the leader of Fretilin (Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor), the country's largest political party.

The same leaders are now getting ready to contest the country's first post-independence elections, which will start with a presidential vote on Monday that will be monitored by more than 2,000 national and international election observers. A parliamentary election is due shortly after. In a plot aimed at sidelining Mr Alkatiri, Nobel Peace Prize-winner Mr Ramos Horta and former resistance leader Mr Gusmco are seeking to swap places. They have a good chance of success.

"I think that Horta will win," said Warren Wright, 45, formerly based in East Timor with the UN and now head of East Timor Law Journal.

The race for parliament is trickier. An internally split Fretilin party remains favourite, but Mr Gusmco's new Congress for the National Reconstruction of East Timor (CNRT) party, holds some potential aces up its sleeve.

The Democratic Party (PD), which has forged an alliance with several smaller parties, could be the spoiler.

Damien Kingsbury, an academic with Australia's Deakin University and observer of East Timor politics, said that "if the CNRT and PD-coalition join forces, then Fretilin is probably out of government".

Regardless of who wins, most agree that there is a lot to do to get the country back on track. Agriculturalist and veteran pro-Timor activist Rob Wesley-Smith has a clear set of priorities.

"People's basic needs must be taken care of first. That is nutrition, clean water and sanitation," he said, underlining the fact that rice shortages in February triggered a fresh wave of violence.

The crisis was partially over-come after the intervention of the UN World Food Programme. It is estimated that East Timor requires 83,000 tonnes of rice per year, but the Ministry of Agriculture calculates that domestic production is only 40,000 tonnes.

"The new leaders must energise the agriculture sector. People have abandoned the fields, and some of the young causing troubles do so because they have nothing to do," Mr Wesley-Smith said.

On the other hand, Mr Wright listed the restoration of peace and the normalisation of social and political relations as the overwhelming priorities.

"These include the prosecution of gangs, the confiscation of all weapons and prosecution of those involved in distributing them, the creation of competent institutions to deal with conflict and disputes, the demobilisation of the military from civil life, and a reformation of the judicial system," he said.

Mr Kingsbury added the ongoing problem of rebel soldiers to this list. "The new leadership will have to resolve the issue of the sacked soldier-petitioners and that of Major Alfredo Reinado. The petitioners are still angry and have the potential to cause future problems," he said.

Nearly 600 petitioners were sacked in March last year after going on strike over what they claimed was discrimination against those from the west of the country. Violence erupted in the following month when the petitioners and their supporters attacked the Government Palace.

Mr Reinado joined them a while later. A fugitive, he leads a group of well-armed men and has become a cult figure among young Timorese.

Mrs Lopes stressed that "lack of justice" was the main cause of the problems. "Timorese entrusted their leaders to uphold the values they fought and died for. But the general consensus is that no changes have taken place since independence and people's cry for justice has gone unheeded.

"People feel that the leaders have failed our country badly. The outbursts of violence are the culmination of their frustration, anger and profound mistrust."

Reviewing events since 1999, Mrs Lopes cited perceived injustices such as the dismissal of Falintil (the military wing of Fretilin) and the abolition of the National Council of Timorese Resistance, a neutral body formed by Mr Gusmco to win the referendum for independence in 1999, as key mistakes.

Falintil was highly respected, yet after independence a narrow age requirement excluded most of the guerillas from the national army.

"The army that emerged was a weak institution with its pride and dignity in tatters. Former resistance veterans started to reorganise themselves to fight for their rights," Mrs Lopes said. "The seeds of post-independence rebellion were planted with this injustice."

Another negative byproduct of the abolition of the National Council of Timorese Resistance was the emergence of Mr Alkatiri's Fretilin as the only political force in the country. With hegemony, Fretilin became despotic, inefficient and corrupt, guilty of a series of wrong policies and injustices. Among other problems, Mrs Lopes singled-out the adoption of Portuguese as the official language, despite the fact that more than 85 per cent of the population speaks Indonesian. Portuguese is spoken only by a small elite, considered supportive of Mr Alkatiri.

"Portuguese robbed the young Timorese of a hope for a better future. After years of fighting and studying, now they cannot get a job. They feel marginalised, isolated, poor and full of rage," she said.

In her passionate analysis, Mrs Lopes did not spare Mr Gusmco, whom she considered "guilty of letting Indonesia off the hook for the crimes committed during the occupation". Her comment referred mostly to the findings of the Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation in East Timor (CAVR), which documented countless cases of executions, torture, mutilations and rape.

Released early last year, the report shocked the world, which called for justice. Yet, Mr Gusmco rejected CAVR's call for reparations and a war-crimes tribunal, saying that "Timor-Leste must look forward and not to the past".

"Thousands of victims of war expected some justice with CAVR. But they were, once again, greatly disappointed," Mrs Lopes said.

Regarding the elections, she agreed that Mr Ramos Horta was likely to become the new president and that Mr Gusmco had a good chance of wrestling the power away from Mr Alkatiri. Her message to the two of them was simple.

"Bring justice to Timor-Leste, because without justice there cannot be security, prosperity, respect of human rights or peace."