A quick visit to Dili has sobered the Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer. Before setting off there, Mr Downer was jawboning the East Timorese about acting as an independent country which should take responsibility for its problems, "not just expect the international community indefinitely to solve all those problems for them".
By the time he left, Mr Downer was accepting that Australia would have to leave nearly double the number of troops it had been expecting to keep in Timor and maintain the force well into next year, past the elections due towards mid-year.
As the April riots in the Solomon Islands showed, elections are not always the solution to political tensions, but sometimes the precursor to new conflicts. Still, there is no better mechanism for connecting government and the popular will, and East Timor actually has more of the political party formation seen as remedy for the leader-voter disconnect elsewhere in the arc of Melanesia.
Mr Downer is wisely telling us that our security contribution is going to be substantial and likely to be measured in years, not months.
His earlier remarks were partly a reaction to observations by East Timor's Prime Minister, Jose Ramos Horta, that the Australian-led international military force was partly to blame for the escape of Alfredo Reinado and 56 other prisoners from Dili's Becora jail. This is arguable, but fortunately neither Mr Ramos Horta nor Mr Downer lingered on the question, looking more at looming challenges, including those posed by Reinado's escape.
As the Herald has argued before, Australia's retention of a military command separate from the new United Nations police mission is neither helpful nor necessary. The tightest possible co-ordination is needed to close up the sort of loopholes that allowed the Becora escape.
Mr Ramos Horta also needs whatever help the outside world can give to restore calm and trust. Reinado – a former major in the East Timorese army – is a contradictory character, of mixed-up motives, but he has enough leadership ability, weapons, and familiarity with Timor's mountainous terrain to become a serious threat. His escape has already been followed by an upsurge in Dili's gang violence. The first emphasis has to be on persuading Reinado to surrender again, with the promise that his and other political cases will be speedily addressed.
For Australia the continuing fragility of security in Dili shows up our limited army manpower. The next year in our region is going to be extraordinarily demanding. In the Solomons, new violence could be sparked if its Prime Minister, Manasseh Sogavare, is successful in his apparent attempts to get political allies charged with instigating the April violence off the hook. Papua New Guinea is heading to elections next July with a run-down, understrength police force and downsizing army, both lacking transport. As much as its leaders would like to take responsibility for their problems, the region needs us standing by.