Jakarta – Indonesia's president has not achieved all he set out to in his first year as leader, but unforeseen events, in particular December's catastrophic tsunami, have not helped, analysts said.

Since taking the helm of the world's most populous Muslim nation, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has had to deal with the tsunami disaster, bombings in Bali, and outbreaks of bird flu and polio, not to mention soaring world oil prices.

"The overall picture if we look at the performance of this guy, he did quite a good job," said Endy Bayuni, the chief editor of the Jakarta Post. "If I was to grade him, he probably would get more than a passing grade, I would give him seven out of 10."

Yudhoyono took office on October 20, 2004 after unseating Megawati Sukarnoputri in the first-ever direct presidential elections, vowing to restore life to the economy, tackle separatist conflicts, and fight rampant corruption.

Mindful of his difficult initiation, observers said the president could have done more on corruption and the economy in the former Dutch colony where more than half of the 220 million population live on less than two dollars a day. "If we simply measure his performance by these two agenda, I think the presidency has been a flop," said Bayuni.

Yudhoyono still enjoys popular support as a man of integrity, but the team he chose around him are largely seen as continuing the kind of corrupt bureaucracy that has bedevilled Indonesian governance for generations.

"The captain and the passengers of the ship are modern democrats but the officers and crew are still living in the Suharto era," said Dennis Heffernan, a partner with Van Zorge, Heffernan and Associates, Indonesia's leading political risk consultancy firm.

Three decades of rule under dictator General Suharto were characterised by authoritarian rule, rampant corruption, and ethnic conflict until he fell from power in 1998 after widespread rioting.

"We do not really see yet radical reform," said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, a political analyst and former adviser to Megawati. "This cannot be done overnight but it could be done faster."

In his defence, however, Yudhoyono has been confronted by one disaster after another. First it was the tsunami, then it was bird flu and polio, and just when they appeared under control, suicide bombers struck in Bali killing 20 people. "I think these unforeseen turns of events took a lot on the presidency at the expense of his other agenda," said Bayuni.

The Bali bombings and a massive hike in fuel prices as oil hovered at record highs failed to dampen the stock market or weaken the rupiah as investors have gradually developed more confidence in Indonesia, analysts said.

The government on October 1 raised fuel prices by an average of 126 percent despite public protests, to cut subsidies that were devouring one-fifth of the annual budget.

The International Monetary Fund welcomed the decision as "wise and courageous". It was protests against a similar hike in fuel prices that led to the downfall of Suharto. "The decision showed he has learned, he has progressed, he has matured during this 12 months," said Bayuni.

In August, the government signed an historic peace deal with rebels in Aceh, eight months after the province was ripped apart by the tsunami at the cost of 131,000 lives. More than 217,000 people died altogether in the Indian Ocean disaster.

"I think he has scored points on Aceh because he had the courage to negotiate," said Anwar. "He showed a willingness to put aside some of the most sensitive nationalist feelings and put the more important needs of the country first."

Half the extra police and troops once deployed to quell the separatist conflict in Aceh have been ordered to leave since rebels lived up to disarmament commitments in return for a degree of regional autonomy.

But, as Yudhoyono's presidency enters its second year, uncertainties abound.

Indonesia's health infrastructure would be ill-equipped to deal with any dramatic escalation of the bird flu outbreak and the hunt continues for those behind this month's bombings as well as earlier attacks.

That said, his second year would be hard-pressed to bring as many surprises as his first.