Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – A week after his apparent landslide victory, the policies of presumptive president-elect Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remain unclear. People still don't know what the former general and cabinet minister known as SBY will do with his mandate to succeed President Megawati Sukarnoputri, but it's becoming clearer how he'll do it.
In his first public speech since the voting, Yudhoyono appealed for unity without clarifying policies to rally around. "Let us all increase our brotherhood, and, more importantly, let us work very hard together to rebuild Indonesia," he told Friday worshippers at a mosque near his home in Bogor.
"Nobody knows Yudhoyono's party, political line, or agenda," University of Indonesia philosophy professor and veteran activist Gadis Arivia said. "It's not about his program; it was, 'Asal bukan Mega' [Anbody but Megawati]."
Leading political commentator Andi Mallarangeng declared, "Yudhoyono is going to do something. He needs to deliver on his mandate. But we don't know what specifically yet."
Mallarangeng added that changes in approach may be more important than specific policies. "Take corruption, for example. The legal framework is there, the infrastructure there. We just need leadership."
Signs of Yudhoyono's leadership style are emerging as he and the country await the final vote count and October 20 presidential inauguration. Yudhoyono has polled nearly 61% of the 91% of votes counted so far. Final election results are due to be announced on October 5.
So far, the newly minted PhD holder – he defended his doctoral dissertation on agricultural economics during the quiet period before the September 20 run-off vote – has lived up to his reputation for deliberate decision making, befitting an outstanding military staff officer not known as a battlefield commander. However, Yudhoyono's relationship with his former armed forces colleagues is one of many unknowns about him and his upcoming tenure.
Trial balloons
One key feature of Yudhoyono's developing leadership style is floating ideas publicly through allies in the media, allowing him to gauge public reaction ahead of putting himself in the line of fire. Supporters say Yudhoyono won't change his mind if there is a negative reaction to the trial balloons, but that he'll know better how to try to sell the policies.
Last week he floated trial balloons about establishing a national security council and an economic advisory council. The former would bring together top government defense and law enforcement officials, including the armed forces and police chiefs, to focus initially on the separatist conflict in Aceh and the continuing threat of terrorism. The economic council would include government officials and outsiders, such as business leaders and academics, to address the country's sluggish growth, persistent unemployment and anemic investment.
The trial balloon on these two US-style councils, according to a source close to Yudhoyono's inner circle, foreshadows a larger innovation, an executive office of the president modeled after the West Wing of the White House. This new structure would let Yudhoyono "take charge of policy," according to the source. "He's going to have his own body to formulate policies. Before, the president was dependent on the ministers for policies. Now he'll have independent sources."
Some reformers have expressed doubts about the return of a former general to Istana Merdeka, citing numerous Suharto era generals backing Yudhoyono's campaign. But the Prosperous Justice Party, a leading champion of reform, is one of several parties in Yudhoyono's coalition from the generally anti-military Islamic camp.
The source close to Yudhoyono's camp dismissed concerns that a former general consolidating power in his presidential office signals a turn back toward authoritarianism. Trial balloons could deflate that issue. Allies could advance the new structure as Yudhoyono asserting the stronger leadership that anecdotal evidence says Indonesian voters want, even if they didn't expect it to be cautiously test marketed.
Nationhood Coalition in opposition
There is also a case study and an emerging long-term strategy for Yudhoyono to overcome his meager support in the incoming House of Representatives. Yudhoyono's new Democratic Party and its allies have about 90 seats out of 550 in the legislature. The Nationhood Coalition, formed to support Megawati's presidential bid, includes Indonesia's three Suharto-era political parties – the authoritarian government's ruling vehicle Golkar, Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Islamic-based United Development Party (PPP) of outgoing Vice President Hamzah Haz – and it holds more than 300 seats in the new House of Representatives.
Even though it would be easier to nail yogurt to a wall than pin down any of Yudhoyono's key policies, Nationhood Coalition leader Akbar Tanjung declared that the group would sit in opposition to Yudhoyono's presidency. In opposition, the group could obstruct the new president's legislative agenda and pursue its own.
But cracks have appeared in both the partnership and the component parties. "The Nationhood Coalition is not a cohesive bloc," Mallarangeng says, forecasting an end to the failed electoral alliance. "The reason for its existence is finished."
Some PDI-P leaders already have called for a break up, partly out of dissatisfaction with Nationhood Coalition efforts on behalf of Megawati, partly because they'd like to see what Yudhoyono offers, policy-wise and politically, before taking sides. Internally, PDI-P faces a struggle between its old guard, which was increasingly sidelined during Megawati's presidency, and newcomers often linked to her husband, Taufik Kiemas. The newcomers will likely take the fall for Megawati's electoral failure.
Kalla change for Golkar?
While trying to keep the alliance intact, Golkar chairman Tanjung has been purging his own party of dissidents who didn't support Megawati. But surveys show the majority of local chapter leaders and more than 70% of Golkar members supported Yudhoyono. Yudhoyono's running mate Jusuf Kalla, a Golkar executive under suspension, is likely to challenge Tanjung for the party leadership in December. A Kalla victory could bring Golkar's 128 House seats into Yudhoyono's camp.
To survive, Tanjung will need to do a better job in Golkar's leadership contest than he did in his first attempt to flex the muscles of the Nationhood Coalition. Last week, the House budget committee reversed its previous decision and voted to cut fuel subsidies in the budget, reportedly on orders from Tanjung.
Those subsidies keep the price of petroleum products for Indonesian consumers well below world levels – a liter of premium gasoline costs about US$0.50 – in deference to Indonesia's oil-producer status. However, that production is dwindling and refined products such as gasoline need to be imported, making the subsidy an expensive luxury.
Originally budgeted at Rp14.5 trillion ($1.6 billion) for oil prices under $20 a barrel, the revised budget allocates Rp63 trillion for subsidies. The government pledged not to raise pump prices in order to keep peace during this election year. Previous attempts to trim subsidies and increase fuels costs have been greeted with sometimes violent demonstrations.
So, when the budget committee voted to cut the subsidy, it seemed the Nationhood Coalition had set a trap for the incoming administration: Yudhoyono would have no choice but to make an unpopular fuel price hike one of his first acts. But now the move seems to have backfired, thanks to some clever political jujitsu from Yudhoyono's team.
After the decision, a parade of experts quickly emerged to agree that it is time to cut fuel subsidies on most items, since the middle and upper class enjoy most of the benefits. They cited Yudhoyono's forgotten campaign promise to institute subsidies geared more toward helping the poor. While raising prices could result in some bellyaching from the effected parties, making the tough choice to cut subsidies could gas up Yudhoyono's reputation for strong leadership.
[Gary LaMoshi, a longtime editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, has also contributed to Slate and Salon.com. He's worked as a broadcast producer and as a print writer and editor in the United States and Asia. He moved to Hong Kong in 1995 and now splits his time between there and Indonesia.]