Eugene Low, Washington – Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may be the preferred choice of officials in Washington to be the next Indonesian president, but Indonesia watchers in the US do not expect an immediate improvement in bilateral relations.

They think the United States government will adopt a wait-and-see approach towards ties between both countries until it gets a clearer picture of Mr Bambang's stance on key issues like fighting terrorism and corruption, analysts told The Straits Times.

Ties between the armed forces of both countries are also expected to remain limited until Indonesia reforms its military. "The US government will probably wait to see what Mr Bambang's policies are," said Professor William Liddle of Ohio State University. "It will also attempt to get him to cooperate more than Megawati Sukarnoputri did."

Prof Liddle believes Mr Bambang will, however, seek to preserve nationalist interests and will not be as cooperative as the US would like. "I foresee business as usual in bilateral relations. Bambang's interests – like Megawati's – will be defined by the political elite and he shares a similar view of the world," he added.

The US has been critical of the Megawati administration, particularly its lack of decisiveness in dealing with terrorism. But analysts say there is no guarantee that her successor will be able to do much better in implementing any bold measures.

Mr Bambang's Democrat Party – together with its coalition partners – controls only 103 seats in the 550-member Parliament and he needs to drum up support from rival parties like Golkar and PDI-P. "There is no way of knowing what he will do," said Professor Daniel Lev of the University of Washington. "We also don't know what the tendency of Parliament will be. This will be a major issue for the next several months."

Congressional Research Service analyst Larry Niksch, however, thinks that Mr Bambang has an opportunity to build a ruling coalition. "Golkar, for example, will not come up against him and act as an obstructionist opposition. They will probably try to cooperate with him on some issues," he noted.

The ongoing tussle for power between Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung and other factions within his party could also work to his advantage, said Prof Liddle. For now, however, Mr Akbar has dismissed offers of any Cabinet positions and said Golkar would act as "the loyal opposition".

For former security minister Bambang, support from lawmakers will be crucial to fulfill his promise of implementing reforms to eradicate widespread corruption and poverty, improve the education system, boost economic growth and fight terrorism.

With such a heavy weight of expectations on his shoulders, Indonesia's first directly elected president will find himself 'under the microscope constantly' over the next five years, said Prof Lev.

American investors, in particular, will be keeping a keen eye on developments in Indonesia. "We are encouraged that there will be new blood in government and this has boosted confidence that things will get done," said Mr John Phipps, senior director of Indonesia affairs at the US-Asean Business Council.

"The onus now is on the new government to perform. Otherwise, it will lose the goodwill of the business community."