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Economy likely to test Yudhoyono presidency

Source
ABC Radio - September 23, 2004

Indonesia's outgoing President Megawati Sukarnoputri has addressed the nation's highest Assembly, the MPR, detailing her achievements over three years in office. Mrs Megawati has refused to concede her loss until official results from Monday's election. Her former security minister and retired General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono meanwhile is forming his plans for his first 100 days in office as Indonesia's sixth president, and his first test, the economy.

Presenter/Interviewer: Karon Snowdon

Speakers: Joseph Setioso, CEO BCA bank, Indonesia's largest private bank; Kamala Chandrakirana, Commissioner for women's rights; Jakarta residents

Snowdon: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is heading for an emphatic win in Indonesia's first democratic election for a president. That doesn't mean people have complete faith in him. Businessman Alexander Leonardus, who voted for Megawati has reservations.

Leonardus: I feel pessimistic with SBY because as you see he's coming from the military. And as you know the military is rejected by all the Indonesian people.

Snowdon: Mr Leonardus says having inherited a stable if not booming economy and tough anti-terrorism laws from his predecessors, SBY can succeed if he sticks to his promises.

Leonardus: From the macro-economic, now its very good, I can do my business. Even if we have a bomb in your Australian Embassy we can enforce the terrorists with this law. Snowdon: The troubles afflicting Indonesia's economy are compounded by the activities of Jemmah Islamiah but they go far beyond that to deep rooted structural problems.

President Megawati's failure to deal decisively with some of them and the lack of talent, even corruption of some of those close to her, contributed to her loss. The Chief Executive Officer of Bank Central Asia, one of Indonesia's largest private banks, Johan Setioso rarely if ever gives media interviews. But he's speaking out with a plea to the new president to quickly deal with the country's number one problem.

Setioso: The problem of unemployment that is the major problem which has social repercussions, maybe the first thig he should focus on is the unemployment problem.

Snowdon: And what steps are needed to deal with the unemployment problem?

Setioso: There is only one way and that is higher growth. Increase investment, increase export-related activities.

Snowdon: What would investors respond to that's going to bring back investors, domestic and foreign, to spend money in this country and bring back jobs.

Setioso: Let us be practical. One of the first things investors will look at is the new cabinet line-up. That would be a basis for investors to trust the new government.

Snowdon: Kamala Chandrakirana, Chair of the Commission on Violence Against Women looks closely at the labour market as part of her job.

Chandrakirana: The biggest source of new employment is Indonesians leaving the country to find employment abroad. For us, women are one of the biggest parts of the labour force right now that are bringing income for their families and they're workign in the most vulnerable sectors of employment.

Snowdon: The consultations being held with political parties and the public at the house of the president in waiting over these last few days are – we're told, to help get the right team in place.

With a reputation as indecisive and very conservative, Kamala Chandrakirana says SBY will need to instill confidence through his choice of his cabinet alongwith some quick results.

Chandrakirana: For sure, he will have a short honeymoon period. I think his first 100 days will determine what happens. He will face oppositionin the parliament so if he can't get support frm the public, which is what brought him to power, within the first 100 days I think it will be almost an impossible job.

Snowdon: The business community also wants a more professional legal system and budget reform, along with a cut in fuel subsidies. The state budget commission is currently proposing to triple the cost of fuel subsidies to a staggering 6 billion US dollars. While not sustainable, cutting subsidies in the past has led to significant social unrest. Bank executive Johan Setioso says care should be taken to protect the poor.

Setioso: The question is how to increase the fuel prices such a way the impact on the poor will not be too heavy and what social network can be extended to the marginal poor that they will not fall in a desperate situation. CEO of Bank Central Asia Johan Setioso who like many others including Alex Leonardus is quietly optimistic about the future without being estatic about the new president.

Leonardus: SBY can stand by his speech and his promises, he will be the best president for now.

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