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Terrorism on election agenda but unlikely to swing vote

Source
Agence France Presse - September 19, 2004

A deadly attack on Australia's Jakarta embassy days before Indonesia's presidential polls may help a former general unseat President Megawati Sukarnoputri but is unlikely to prove the poll's tipping point, analysts say.

In the days after the attack, in which nine died and more than 180 were hurt, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono enjoyed a brief surge in popularity ratings that have placed him consistently above Megawati since a July first-round vote.

Pollsters speculated the gain could be due to rising voter confidence in Yudhoyono's ability to tackle terrorism thanks to his military background and his former job as Megawati's top security minister.

The embassy bombing was the third major terrorist attack in Indonesia in three years, including the Bali bombings and a strike last year on Jakarta's Marriott hotel, all blamed on Al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah extremists.

As security minister Yudhoyono, known as SBY, oversaw the hunt for those responsible, earning him a tough reputation untarnished by the rights abuse allegations surrounding many of his former army colleagues.

"Naturally SBY is considered stronger because he is a military man. He is considered to have more experience in dealing with those activities," said professor Azyumardi Azra, a rector of Indonesia's state Islamic University.

But, says Azra, although Yudhoyono has avoided capitalising on the bombing, his supporters were less restrained, even if their efforts proved fruitless.

"I think SBY did not try to use this bombing to take advantage. But some of his supporters tried to do so, they tried to influence the public by letting them think that Megawati is not strong enough ... but they failed."

"Megawati had a very quick response to the bombing. She returned home from Brunei very quickly and issued a statement very quickly," he said, referring to the president's shortened trip to attend a royal wedding in Brunei.

Although both candidates focused on terrorism in the opening addresses of a series of televised discussions during three days of official campaigning, Azra says the issue has not been a major campaign theme.

Surveys have shown that Indonesia's 153 million voters, almost one-third of them jobless or underemployed, are more concerned with economic reform and tackling corruption than with security.

The Washington-based International Foundation for Electoral Systems said in poll completed before September 9 that only 0.5 percent of respondents said fighting terror was the top issue to be addressed by candidates.

However 59 percent believed Yudhoyono would be more effective at improving security compared with 20 percent for Megawati.

Despite the polls, Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Habibie Centre political think tank says security has become a premium concern among Indonesians who are increasingly disturbed by the violence taking place on their soil.

"When they go to the polls, people will be more concerned about security than before so they hope that whoever is president will protect them," she said.

But she warned candidates should avoid capitalising on the embassy blast at a time when Indonesia was "in deep grief and great shock".

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