Jun Honna, the author of the book Military Politics and Democratization in Indonesia (2003), and an associate professor at Ritsumeiken University in Japan, has been in Indonesia for about one year to observe the elections here. The political scientist shared his observations with The Jakarta Post's Kornelius Purba.
Question: There is an apparent rivalry between the Indonesian Police (Polri) and the Indonesian Military (TNI) to have an influence on the presidential election. Why has this occurred?
Answer: I think the support by the police for incumbent President Megawati Soekarnoputri is very institutional. Police tend to believe that if Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) becomes president, the police would be put under the Ministry of Home Affairs, while now they are under direct presidential control. The police fear that if Megawati fails, they will face great difficulty. And also the Megawati government has provided them with a lot of money. They bought motorcycles, cars and other things.
Most police officers generally think that their condition has been much better during Megawati's administration. That is why the police tend to support her. They fear the military will come back (to power) again if Susilo wins. They will lose their power. Of course, officially they do not say that, they say they are neutral.
How about the TNI?
I don't think there is an institutional instruction from the Army chief or from the TNI commander to support SBY. There are a lot of TNI families that tend to believe that someone from the TNI should be the next president.
That's why in many military housing complexes, there are many ballot stations which support SBY. However, if you see in other areas, Megawati also received a lot of support from the TNI families. So, I don't think there is an instruction from the top.
Why?
Whoever becomes president, he or she needs to rely on the TNI in conducting military policy and in managing national stability. The TNI is very confident that whomever will become the next president, that person will need to rely on the TNI, so they don't need to risk siding with one or the other. They have a very strong bargaining position.
In terms of government, what are the differences between Susilo and Megawati?
If Susilo becomes president there is hope that his leadership can provide a lot of results, because he promised to the public that if elected he would bring about a lot of changes. So there are a lot of expectations on him. He has a very good vision and he understands what is demanded by the international community. I think his vision is very good. However, there is some question as to whether he will be able to surround himself with people equally as good as him, when he is elected president
If you look at the people around his "success team" there are some questions about them, for instance, retired military officers. I don't believe they are reformists. Another question is, even if SBY himself has a good vision, will he be able to resist those within his own circle.
Although he has strong leadership skills and seems intent on reforms, he'll have to deal with resistance from within his own circle of advisers.
Another concern is that because he is only supported by relatively small parties, like the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the Crescent Star PBB and his own Democratic Party. Many people are concerned that he will face resistance in the House of Representatives, which looks to be controlled by the new Nationhood Coalition (dominated by Golkar, PDI-P and PPP). Whether his government will be better or not, totally depends on his leadership.
Do you think Megawati can change?
If she wins the election, of course there is a possibility that she will carry out more reforms. But she is also surrounded by political party elites, and her next government would also be comprised after much horse-trading. I don't think that situation makes her able to have strong leadership. So without strong leadership, we can not expect drastic reforms, which are urgently required for economic recovery
From a foreign perspective, what are the differences between Megawati and Susilo?
Basically there is no difference for foreigners, including for foreign investors. The international community always demands that Indonesia establish a good investment climate, the eradication of corruption and judicial reforms. So the establishment of clean governance is a crucial issue for foreign countries. So, whoever becomes president, their demands would be the same. However, I am not quite sure, but I see the tendencythat they (majority of foreigners) prefer SBY because he can communicate with the international community.
How about the Islam factor in the elections?
Islam, as a social value is penetrating Indonesia, and that tendency will continue. But Islam as a political tool in the formal institutions like the House or the president, I don't think the influence is growing stronger. In terms of formal politics, there will be no big change in the future.
But the question is whether a Islam outside of this formal structure is growing, like the radicalization of some Islamic groups. As long as the economic condition of Indonesia fails to recover, more poor people will be motivated by radical values. The core of the problem is not radicalism, not the religion itself, but more the economic condition of this country.
What is your predicting about the direction of Indonesian democracy in the next five years?
I think the presidential election, this time, is a good experiment to consolidate democracy. Political leadership is based on the aspirations of people, and that will be a breakthrough to consolidate the democratic processes in this country. We will also witness the direct elections of regents, mayors and governors. This also promotes democratic values and democratic political orientation in the regions. That is one of the hopes.
But on the other hand, if you look at the actual situation in the villages, there is some question about the direct elections, because there is a concern that the candidates will try to mobilize voters based on religious and ethnic lines.