Indonesia's President Megawati Sukarnoputri faces an uphill battle for re-election next month despite belated attempts to re-connect with the "little people" who once supported her so fervently, analysts say.
Efforts to shed her aloof and taciturn image by visiting markets and appearing for television interviews have failed to win much public favour and have even exposed her shortcomings, they said.
Indonesians will for the first time vote for their president directly on July 5. A run-off will be held on September 20 if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote.
Opinion polls show Megawati is far behind her former security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as the preferred president.
Voters deserted her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle in droves in the April 5 parliamentary election, punishing her for lacklustre growth, rising prices, high unemployment and continuing widespread corruption.
"The more she appears in public the more she's in trouble," said Denny Januar Aly, director of the Indonesian Survey Institute. "During television interviews she seemed to have failed to present herself as a modest, intelligent person willing to listen to other people's opinions," he said.
In a recent interview, Megawati appeared to get easily irritated and even scolded her interviewer when he asked a sensitive question.
Megawati has promised to create almost 13 million new jobs and cut poverty rates by almost half if she secures a second term. In an equally bold campaign pledge, she wrote an article on the Euro 2004 football tournament in Monday's Koran Tempo newspaper promising to make the Indonesian national side the equal of the Europeans.
But Daniel Sparingga, a political analyst from Airlangga University, said her efforts to win back voters were ineffective. "In fact there is a widespread negative impression." In a recent television talk show, "she was seen as extremely defensive, emotional and to some extent could be seen as aggressive, too," Sparingga said.
Megawati, 57, is a daughter of founding president Sukarno but lacks his charisma and electrifying eloquence. The so-called "wong cilik" or "little people" voted the party of the former opposition leader into top place in parliament in 1999, a year after the fall of dictator Suharto. She became president in July 2001.
"We had told them so many times to take care of the poor, take care of what they call the wong cilik, but they had estranged themselves," said H.S. Dillon, executive director of Partnership, which advises the government on reforms.
"They could see that [Megawati] had started to enjoy the role of what you would call the imperial presidency. So they were too far removed, and they were corrupt and they were not listening to their constituents," he said.
Megawati has overseen major constitutional reforms, and analysts say she should be credited for improved macroeconomic stability. But such an achievement will not impress people without real improvement in their livelihoods.
"The yardstick remains whether the people feel they are more prosperous," said Amir Santoso, a political lecturer at the University of Indonesia. "The fact is people are still suffering, unemployment is rife, prices are high and she can't explain why those things are happening," he said.
Denny said Megawati lacked intellectual weight and leadership to tackle complex problems. "She is not a leader for a time of crisis," he said.
Dillon said she had missed opportunities to get closer to the people and blamed this on her aloofness. "I think what was her biggest mistake was that she travelled abroad so much ... she missed so many opportunities to show that she had the people's welfare in her heart."