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Ex-generals run for president but RI won't be regimented

Source
Agence France Presse - May 30, 2004

Indonesia's presidential race gets under way this week, with two ex-generals among the front-runners to lead a nation which was ruled for most of its history by authoritarian figures.

Former military chief Wiranto and ex-security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono are among five candidates who start campaigning Tuesday across the world's largest archipelago for the July 5 election.

Some 150 million voters, taking a giant step towards democracy six years after the fall of dictator Suharto, will for the first time directly elect their leader.

No one is expected to secure the more than 50 percent needed to win on the first round. Analysts say Wiranto, Yudhoyono or incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri are likeliest to make it through to the run-off on September 20 between the top two.

While Indonesian voters are comfortable with military figures, analysts say the emergence of two former generals – one of whom faces serious human rights charges – is not a threat to the fledgling democracy.

"As long as they join the concept and follow the rules in a democratic context it is not a threat to democracy," said Dewi Fortuna Anwar.

"What many people worry about is the fact that in our transition to democracy, military thinking is still dominant, still part of the political discourse and civilians themselves have a feeling of insecurity," said Anwar, a former adviser to president B.J. Habibie.

Mohammad Qodari, research director of the Indonesian Survey Institute, said not all civilian candidates are better than military ones. He said some of Megawati's policies tend towards authoritarianism. She is a daughter of founding president Sukarno, who introduced the concept of "guided democracy."

Hadar Gumay of the Center for Electoral Reform said many Indonesians still hold the idea that military men are superior to civilians. "It's a reflection of our society's thinking." Another former general, Agum Gumelar, has joined the race for the vice-presidency as the running mate of vice-president Hamzah Haz. Haz is considered an underdog, as is national assembly speaker Amien Rais.

Under Suharto, the all-powerful military held civilian administrative positions nationwide.

Indonesians, grappling with economic problems and terrorist attacks, now long for the stability and prosperity associated with Suharto's rule. However Anwar said people want a strong leader but not an authoritarian one, making Yudhoyono more popular than Wiranto. Yudhoyono is way ahead in recent opinion polls.

"Wiranto was the highest military figure while Susilo never reached the highest level. Susilo did not exercise too much power in the past and has always been regarded as an intellectual," Anwar said.

United Nations-funded prosecutors in Dili have charged Wiranto with crimes against humanity. They say that as armed forces chief in 1999 he failed to curb atrocities by Jakarta's forces and their militia proxies against independence supporters.

A judge in East Timor has issued an arrest warrant, which Jakarta has ignored.

Wiranto is the candidate for the Golkar party, which had backed Suharto and which won the April 5 parliamentary election.

Golkar has the support of the National Awakening Party (PKB), which came third. If people vote for party rather than personality this would give Wiranto a big advantage.

But analysts said voters – many of whom turned to new parties including Yudhoyono's Democrats in April – would be divided between those who toe the party line and those who vote for individuals they like.

While PKB is affiliated to Indonesia's largest Muslim group Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the NU leader Hasyim Muzadi is Megawati's running mate.

"If you have just a simple mathematical equation the winner will be the Golkar candidate, but again we are talking about a direct presidential election," Anwar said.

"Many younger people in PKB are not comfortable with this marriage of convenience [with Golkar]. Hardcore loyalists will support PKB-Golkar but those who are not hardcore maybe will just vote for Muzadi," she said.

"NU has a huge following but it is split." Arbi Sanit, a political lecturer at the University of Indonesia, agreed. "Who says that PKB is supported by all NU members?"

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