Gary LaMoshi, Denpasar – The simplest statistic about the economic impact of the terrorist bombings in Bali a year ago this Sunday is that two McDonald's have closed. That's not just an indicator of decimated tourist arrivals.
In Bali, as elsewhere in emerging Asia, McDonald's represents an upmarket indulgence for aspiring local families. With the decimated tourism industry directly or indirectly providing incomes to an estimated 80 percent of families, Bali's residents are cutting back on indulgences as well as necessities.
A United Nations Development Program survey found earnings down, school enrollments down, and some people even eating fewer meals in response to the shrunken tourism. Temple activities for Bali's unique brand of Hinduism also appear to have been trimmed, with fewer ogoh-ogoh – giant papier mache demon statues – in evidence for the most recent New Year holiday than in past years.
The gap
Statistics through August show direct tourist arrivals in Bali have fallen by more than a third compared with the previous year since the October 12, 2002, bomb blasts. In the month immediately after the bombings, 57 percent fewer tourists came (31,497 arrivals versus 72,806 in November 2001). Surprisingly, the arrivals gap hit a high of 60 percent in May this year when severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was in the air (even though Bali remained SARS-free).
Gaps narrowed to 34 percent for June, then 24 percent for July, the first month of the high season (111,828 this year vs 147,033 arrivals in July 2002), then rose to nearly 27 percent for August (117,600 this year vs an apparent record 160,420 arrivals in August 2002). Overall, 419,000 fewer visitors have arrived in Bali since the bomb and, by official estimates, tourist spending has fallen by more than US$400 million.
Bad as those figures are, they don't tell the whole story. More visitors from Asia are among the arrivals, in place of tourists from Europe and the United States. Asians tend to come for five days on discount packages, while Westerners generally stay longer. That means hotels, restaurants, tour operators, and nightspots, as well as government's take from taxes, are all suffering more than the arrival numbers and official estimates indicate.
More troubling than the disease is the apparent lack of an effective cure. With politicians suffering from Bali fatigue, national elections coming next year, and tougher visa restrictions for tourists looming, things may get worse in the months ahead.
Last month, a Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) Bali Recovery Task Force presented a recovery program to 120 Bali tourism leaders. The session revealed just how little real progress has been made to revive the main cog driving Indonesia's $5 billion tourism industry and the substantial roadblocks to recovery that remain.
Crisis management
The expert advice given to Bali in the PATA report and the meeting include lessons useful for any destination attempting to rebound from a disaster or crisis. Consultant Bert van Walbeek, a veteran of tourism-recovery programs after the 1990 Gulf War (for Sheraton's Middle East hotels and the Egyptian government) and for the Tourism Authority of Thailand after Bangkok's 1992 military coup, defines a crisis as a situation "where you can't just say, 'Let's forget the whole thing.'"
And, as every veteran of the 1997 economic crisis in Asia knows, the Chinese character for "crisis" combines "danger" with "opportunity". Recovery means exploiting those opportunities. For example, van Walbeek noted, "The name 'Bali' has been enhanced; a lot more people know about Bali than did before the bomb."
Some Bali tourism leaders see this month's foreign government visitors to the island as an opportunity to point out the absurdity of travel warnings still in effect for Indonesia. In addition to Association of Southeast Asian Nations heads of state, plus leaders of Japan, China, South Korea and India, in Bali this week, US President George W Bush plans a stop in Bali as part of his trip to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation in Bangkok, and Australian Prime Minister John Howard is coming for October 12 commemorations this weekend, bringing hundreds of Australian survivors and victims' relatives with him, all on his government's tab.
However, van Walbeek warned that complaining about travel warnings only raises public awareness of them. What Bali really needs, as detailed by the PATA task force, is a comprehensive action plan for rebuilding it as a tourist destination.
Of the eight PATA recommendations, one focuses on addressing security and safety concerns and another on creating a crisis management plan. The other six involve better coordination and cooperation between various industry players that include airlines, local and national government tourism and security agencies, and trade groups.
Uncoordinated
Such coordination remains elusive in Indonesia. In Egypt and Thailand, van Walbeek recalled, government took the lead in the recovery program. Egypt's tourism minister provided a plane for a two-week whistle-stop tour of European cities to bring their message directly to tour packagers. Thailand's government provided promotional campaign funding and incentives; in return, hotels provided thousands of free room nights both for incentives and for overseas travel agents. (Indonesia's current $12.5 million tourism-promotion budget is a fraction of the spending by rivals Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.)
At the PATA meeting, the leading complaint from attendees was that, a year after the bombings, no leadership has emerged to pilot the recovery. "Bali's tourism industry is in desperate need of clear thinking and leadership," Bali Tourism Board chairman Putu Agus Antara declared in a speech delivered on his behalf at the meeting (he was unable to attend because of a conflicting engagement).
"Those in positions to lead our industry have both the opportunity and obligation to do whatever they can to improve our current situation," said J M Daniels, president director of www.balidiscovery.com and past chairman of the Bali PATA chapter. "If they refuse to exercise those responsibilities, we – the members of the industry – must demand they lead."
The PATA report maps where to lead, including a blueprint for taking the island and the industry through the four phrases after a disaster: recovery, rehabilitation, normalization, and expansion. The detailed program includes public relations, industry and government steps needed to accomplish a turnaround from disaster.
According to the PATA task force, the first steps should have been taken as soon as the bomb smoke cleared on Jalan Legian. With luck, maybe Bali will get started on its recovery script by the time it's supposed to be wrapping up the final phrase. Sadly, the work that should have begun in the days immediately after the tragedy is every bit as necessary a year later.