APSN Banner

Around the markets - Indonesia's boon: a falling dollar

Source
Internatinal Herald Tribune - June 5, 2003

Wayne Arnold (New York Times) – Between separatist rebellions, corrupt courts, slumping tourism and rising youth unemployment, Indonesia has plenty to worry about.

Unusually for a developing economy, though, the fret list does not include the falling US dollar. Indonesia's rupiah has become one of the world's 20 strongest currencies this year. It is up around 10 percent against the dollar since mid-March, and is now near a two-year high at 8,235 to the dollar. Many analysts think that the rate will be 8,000 to the dollar before the end of the year.

Indonesia's senior economic minister, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, has acknowledged that the rupiah's rise is "a bit of a concern" for some neighboring export-dependent economies.

But economists say Indonesia's situation is very different, and that the strong rupiah is a boon for the country. Exports are much less important for Indonesia than for its neighbors, while the country's sizable foreign debts become easier to repay the higher the rupiah climbs.

"The advantages of a strong local currency outweigh the disadvantages on the export side," said V. Anantha-Nageswaran, head of investment consulting in Asia for Credit Suisse Private Banking.

According to the credit-rating agency Standard Poor's, exports amount to slightly over one-quarter of Indonesia's annual economic output, but the country's foreign debts are equivalent to more than 40 percent. The rupiah's climb has made Indonesian stocks more attractive to foreign investors, who were already drawn to the country by its relative stability in recent months. The rupiah's rise helps them twice: It improves the business prospects for the companies whose stocks they own, and it enlarges the stocks' gains when converted back into dollars.

For that reason, investment advisers like Anantha-Nageswaran have been advising clients to buy Indonesian assets. So far this year, the main Indonesian stock index has climbed nearly 22 percent in local terms and 32 percent in dollar terms, making Jakarta one of the world's best-performing stock markets this year.

Analysts say the market still appears relatively inexpensive, with stocks priced at an average of 12 times earnings in an economy that is expected to grow 4 percent this year. What Indonesia needs most, though, is to win back the kind of foreign direct investment that is increasingly going to China, economists say.

Though there was an uptick in investment approvals in April, last year's figures were dismal. Indonesia has fallen a long way from the halcyon days before the Asian financial crisis.

Even so, Indonesia is drawing both stock investors and bond investors, many of them Asian banks awash in deposits but short of creditworthy customers to lend to. With both the rupiah and Indonesian interest rates sinking, the yields on the country's bonds look increasingly attractive.

Country