Robert Go, Jakarta – Tourist arrivals in Bali have recovered only to a third of the level that tourism experts had said it would. The monthly visitor figures for the resort stand at 60,000.

Many in the tourism industry had predicted initially that the Bali blasts would dampen the island's draw potential for between six months and a year at the most. But now, 2005 is being bandied about as a more realistic date.

The World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme's latest report on Bali revealed these figures, which were presented to international donors at a meeting in Jakarta on Monday.

Although the Jakarta government has planned some 74 billion rupiah in aid to Bali, the study suggests that Indonesia should focus its assistance on specific needy areas, and make sure the money trickles down to the intended recipients.

Survey findings show there was a huge impact on the people – 94 per cent of respondents say their incomes have dropped by an average of 40 per cent, and 70 per cent of people say they now work less or have lost jobs altogether.

Schools, especially in poor districts like Buleleng and Karangasem, report higher student dropout rates, and are girding themselves for even lower attendance figures when the school year begins next month. The agencies conducting the studies said Lombok Island to the east of Bali saw similar patterns of lower revenue and greater poverty.

East Java province, which has a more diversified and industrialised economy than its neighbours to the east, fared better than the more tourism-dependent islands.

The study team's final recommendation is for Bali and the rest of Indonesia to seek a more sustainable model of tourism instead of the free-for-all or grab-them-while-they're-here approach of the past two decades.

That kind of prescription, however, could meet steep resistance from the local population, who for years have thrived and enjoyed higher living standards compared to the rest of Indonesia due to the abundance of dollar-bearing tourists.

Mr Prasetyono, a dive instructor in Sanur, Bali, said: "People still can't let go of tourism. Many here don't want to even think about alternatives, even if tourism has suffered several shocks over the past few years. Bali still waits for tourists to come back. Maybe the Balinese are too accustomed to the easy life that tourism brings."