Warren Fernandez, Jakarta – Brace yourselves – the next 18 months are going to be tense and turbulent as Indonesia heads down a bumpy road to the 2004 polls.

Talk to political insiders and you will hear riveting accounts of how close some quarters of the Indonesian military came to seizing power two weeks ago, in the face of popular opposition to the Megawati government's slashing of some subsidies. The word "coup" trips lightly off many lips.

That policy U-turn has weakened President Megawati Sukarnoputri's government, by giving the impression that it was weak, indecisive and capable of being unnerved by popular pressure. Opposition street fighters I met were brimful with pride at the way they had forced the government's hand. And they are thirsting for more.

There is even talk about the government being replaced in the next few months by a presidium of various parties, which would rule until the elections next year, with a view to restoring order.

While this does not seem likely – for now – many observers believe the authorities will now adopt a cautious approach, mindful that any political mis-steps could bring the rent-a-crowd gang back on the streets, egged on by the government's critics.

And there are many. Nearly 240 parties have lined up to contest the polls next year. The joke in Jakarta is that for every two people you meet in the streets, there are three who want to be leader. Each contender knows he will have to form alliances if he is to get ahead, and the wooing of parties has begun.

The biggest catch will be the leadership of Golkar. With its chairman Akbar Tandjung under a cloud over graft charges, the party's top post is up for grabs. Contenders include former military chief Wiranto, who re-emerged on the scene recently and is said to be eyeing the job. But, he is unlikely to play second fiddle to Ms Megawati. Ms Megawati's supporters won't just sit back and let that happen. Their favourite seems to be Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare Yusuf Kalla. With him as Golkar chief, a deal could be struck for a winning PDI-P-Golkar ticket.

But there are many others with their own supporters and ambitions. Among them are top security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, popular Yogyakarta governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, Muhammadiyah chief Ahmad Syafii Maarif and People's Consultative Assembly chairman Amien Rais.

With so much at stake, so many contenders and so many deals to be done, the political shadow play ahead will no doubt be lively, long-drawn – and lucrative.