There are warnings today about a negative fallout in the region from the Howard Government's decision to deploy forces to the gulf before any United Nations decision on war against Iraq.

Transcript:

Eleanor Hall: Well, there are also warnings today about a negative fallout in the region, from the Howard Government's decision to deploy forces to the Gulf before any United Nations decision on war against Iraq.

Of particular concern is the world's most populous Muslim nation, and one of our nearest neighbours, Indonesia. Profesor Jamie Mackie has been an Indonesian specialist for the last 45 years, working at universities around Australia and in Indonesia.

He's now Professor Emeritus at the Australian National University's School for Pacific and Asian Studies, and he joins us now from Canberra.

Professor Mackie, thanks for joining us. How do you think today's very public deployment of forces to the Gulf will be perceived by our neighbours in the region?

Jamie Mackie: I can't gauge in detail whether the actions yesterday and today are going to create an immediate backlash, but what concerns me is that we get into an involvement, assuming we are going to get involved in a war with Iraq, we put at risk, or we put at a lower priority what I think should be our top priority, which is the war on terrorism.

Now, we've got to balance the war on Iraq, which perhaps is our insurance policy with the Americans to keep ANZUS in place, against the war on terrorism, which since the Bali bombing has come very close to home because we now know with much greater certainty than before that there are networks through South East Asia with links back to Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, and they could have a big influence on Muslim communities in Indonesia and Malaysia and elsewhere in South East Asia.

Eleanor Hall: So are you saying that you think Australia's actions in Iraq could potentially fuel the extremism that we've become only too aware of?

Jamie Mackie: I'm sure that it will give a lot of ammunition to the extremists in those countries, and it will put the more moderate Muslim people in those countries, including the supporters of Megawati's Government in Indonesia who are the least extreme, shall we put it that way, the people down the other end of the spectrum, the more tolerant and moderate group – they're going to find themselves in a very embarrassing position.

Eleanor Hall: Well, Indonesia is facing elections next year. I mean, what sort of pressure does this move by the Australian Government put on Indonesia's Government in the run-up to that election?

Jamie Mackie: I wouldn't go, at this stage, beyond saying it won't make life any easier for them. I think it could make life quite a lot more difficult. The important point to make is this: that in the name of Muslim brotherhood, they will be under pressure to dissociate themselves from us just at a time when they have been associating themselves with us through the investigations into the Bali bombing through the Federal Police, and that's been an enormously successful operation. We're putting all that at risk.

The Indonesians might well say to hell with you, get right out of that operation, which I think would be a terribly costly outcome for Australia. So that we're putting at risk the chances of being able to work with the moderate groups in Indonesia against the extremists, and more importantly, I want to put the emphasis this way; relations between Indonesia and us could get quite difficult.

I don't think that's as important as the fact that the war on Iraq is going to put the moderates in these countries into a very difficult position, because they won't be able to just stand up to the extremists without to some extent, leaning in their direction.

Eleanor Hall: To some extent, is there a possibility then, that the war in Iraq or any potential war in Iraq could help put extremist Muslims in power in Indonesia?

Jamie Mackie: No, no, there are too few of them, and there are big well-organised Muslim parties which are not going to be displaced by the small handful of extremists. But what is going to happen is that the rhetoric will be ratcheted up in the direction of the extremists, and the mainstream people are going to find it very hard to reply to that rhetoric.

Eleanor Hall: Just very briefly, Mr Mackie, are you saying that this action could in fact put Australians in more danger in the region, in terms of the fight against terrorism?

Jamie Mackie: I don't want to put it in those terms. I don't think we're in any great danger. I think we can tolerate some deterioration in the bilateral relationship without huge losses of either security or economic opportunities, but what worries me much more is that we are putting at risk our basic strategic interests in fighting the war on terrorism. The war on terrorism must be won by the moderate Muslims in Indonesia and Malaysia and the rest of the region.

Eleanor Hall: Professor Jamie Mackie from the Australian National University, thanks very much for joining us.