[Just what was Jakarta trying to achieve two days ago by sending its acting ambassador scurrying back to Canberra with threats that the Government might have to withdraw its cooperation in the Bali investigation? Imron Cotan hinted darkly that angry Indonesians might target the Federal police and ASIO investigators working on the ground to crack the bombing case, and that his government might have to respond to public outrage at the ASIO raids on the homes of Indonesians living in Australia. So, was this just populist theatre for the masses back home or a genuine threat? The Australian's foreign editor, Greg Sheridan, and Tim Lindsey, Director of the Asian Law Centre at the University of Melbourne, discuss the issue.]

Transcript:

Tony Jones: Well, back to our top story now and our regular Friday Forum.

Just what was Jakarta trying to achieve two days ago by sending its acting ambassador scurrying back to Canberra with threats that the Government might have to withdraw its cooperation in the Bali investigation?

Imron Cotan hinted darkly that angry Indonesians might target the Federal police and ASIO investigators working on the ground to crack the bombing case, and that his government might have to respond to public outrage at the ASIO raids on the homes of Indonesians living in Australia.

So, was this just populist theatre for the masses back home or a genuine threat?

Both the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Downer brushed the comments aside, in spite of the fact Mr Cotan claimed to be delivering a message from his own government.

So, just how tenuous is our relationship with Indonesia right now? And what are the tensions inside its government?

Joining us now the Australian's foreign editor, Greg Sheridan and Tim Lindsey, Director of the Asian Law Centre at the University of Melbourne. Greg Sheridan, first to you if we can, how seriously should we take Mr Cotan's intervention?

Greg Sheridan, foreign editor, the Australian: This has been a very bad week for the Australia-Indonesia relationship. I think the Government is absolutely right to be very calm about it. I think the worst thing that could happen is inflammatory words from the Australian side.

There is one paradox at work here, which is that a lot of this is being driven by the Indonesian media and for many decades we prayed and asked for a free Indonesian media and if you have a free media they're free to be irresponsible and sensationalist.

Tony Jones: It is ironic that, but what about Mr Cotan? He's not a member of the media, but a member of the diplomatic service and acting ambassador?

Greg Sheridan: That's true. And his remarks were pretty extraordinary. The Indonesian Foreign Ministry does have a bit of a reservoir of anti-Australian feeling.

The other thing is one has to point out that these raids apparently occurred on 20 families, no-one was injured, no-one was arrested and in very few cases was forceable entry affected. And to suggest that that would be cause enough not to cooperate in the investigation of a mass murder did seem rather strange.

Tony Jones: Tim Lindsey, what was your reading of Mr Cotan's statements?

Associate Professor Tim Lindsey, Asian Law Centre, University of Melbourne: I think Tony, to understand what's happening, we have to look several years ahead to the 2004 election.

At the last election no party won a majority. It was a plurality at best and we'll see the same results at the next election.

The nature of the Indonesian social groups are such that no-one can win it. That means it will be done on the margins. The next government, like this one, will be built on coalitions.

Now the current Government of Megawati Sukarnoputri, which is still likely to win, has to build coalitions and its Muslim credentials are pretty weak.

Megawati, you recall, is opposed by Muslims in 1999 and she's often regarded as an insincere Muslim. It's very important for her government to be seen to be acting on Muslim concerns. And I think that's what's driving this.

Tony Jones: Is that why Foreign Minister Wirajuda himself is not making these statements. He seems to be delivering them at second hand or one-step removed at least. First we have stuff statements from the Foreign Ministry spokesman and then from the acting ambassador to Australia?

Tim Lindsey: I think it would be a mistake to see what's happened over the door bashing episodes as a really significant deterioration in the relationship.

We have a secular moderate party in control in Indonesia that's hemmed in between Generals on one side and jihad on the other. That is the possibility of the military waiting in the wings to make some return to power if the secular democratic governments fail.

On the other hand, Muslim parties that wish to use extremism in the lead-up in the forthcoming elections to increase their power. Now, the current Government of Megawati has very little choice but to be seen to be reacting, in those circumstances it's doing it in a reasonably way and that distance you've identified demonstrates that.

Tony Jones: Do you take that point, Greg Sheridan?

Greg Sheridan: I take Tim's point and I think his analysis is correct. We can't treat the Megawati Government like an errant child or something.

This is a government of grownups which is responsible for its own statements. Really you'd have to say, I agree with Tim. It's in our interests for the Megawati Government to succeed.

And she represents the best constellation of forces, she's secular national list and a moderate and so on. But it's been a very disappointing government. She hasn't tackled economic reform, she hasn't tackled extremism, she hasn't reached out in any coherent way to moderate Islam.

And if this kind of rather hysterical bashing of Australia is her way of reaching out to mainstream Islam, that's not very promising for the future.

Tony Jones: It seems to be hard to judge what she thinks about anything because we never actually hear her making statements. In a sense, she's even further removed from any public statements.

Greg Sheridan: Indeed, a senior Indonesian said to me this week said to me that we've gone from having a blind president in Wahid to a mute President in Megawati. And if we get Amin Rais, we'll have a deaf president, because he doesn't listen to anyone. But I do think there is a feeling almost of despair amongst the Indonesian elite at the performance of Megawati herself.

Tony Jones: Tim Lindsey, I know you think that there's a certain eloquence to her silence...

Tim Lindsey: Absolutely. Her silence was a political technique learnt through 15 years of leadership with the Opposition under Suharto. She learnt to convey messages to her constituency by not speaking.

In Australian politics, that wouldn't work very well. But it can be quite profound in an Indonesian context. You have to remember...

Tony Jones: It doesn't seem to be impressing the political elites there. It seems to be seen more as a sign of weakness.

Tim Lindsey: Megawati's constituency isn't in the political elite. She won around 36 per cent on the non-elite vote, which went in fact to intellectual moderate mainstream Islamic parties such as Amin Rais's. She's not really that interested in their vote. She's interested in maintaining elite support up to the election.

But her constituency understands her silence. I think you have to understand that for her any public statement she makes because she's so hemmed in my Muslim parties – by Golkar and the military and the other side, any statement she makes – is a weapon against her.

She's a canny player, she's a strategist. The idea that she's stupid – a dumb housewife – is clearly ridiculous. You don't survive the labyrinthine politics of Indonesia, remain president, topple the previous president unless you're pretty smart.

Tony Jones: Given the minefield she's walking through, do you trust her government to tackle this serious problem of terrorism inside Indonesia?

tim lindsey: It's not going to be easy. But let's be fair about this. The Americans haven't called Mullah Omar Osama bin Laden.

In Indonesia we've got the whole leadership of Jemaah Islamiah already under arrest, including Abu Bakar Bashir, we've got a terrorist government regulation issued almost immediately by Megawati, in fact two.

The House is now debating those emergency regulations and they'll be issued as legislation. They've ratified a whole range of anti-terrorism conventions including money-laundering running to finding and so forth. The statement that they're not doing anything is just factually untrue.

I think given the fact that she is risking critical margins in the 2004 elections by taking these steps, and is exposing herself to a vice-president who is working to undermine her all the time, what's occurred already is quite remarkable.

And I think in terms of the Australia-Indonesia relationship we should looks at the fact the investigation is continuing, there have been arrests and cooperation is continuing, apart from the rhetoric arising out of the door-bashing.

Tony Jones: Greg Sheridan, what do you think of that?

Indeed, how does one judge her attitude to Australia? I mean, we seem to get down to the occasional meetings with John Howard, looking at her body language. Is she turning away? Is she looking at him? Is she close to him? Is she at the other end of the hall?

Greg Sheridan: Well, I must say I appreciate Tim's analysis, I think there's a lot to it, but mind you he sounds a bit like I used to trying to put the best face on Indonesia all the time, and that's a good thing, I'm glad there are people doing that.

Tony Jones: But you're worried about that?

Greg Sheridan: No, no, I think it's very good that we're trying to put the best face on Indonesia, that's as we should, because the relationship is so important.

I think in reality this is a very poorly performed government and I think there's hardly an Indonesian anywhere in the archipelago who would argue that.

The other thing though is that we're in for a stormy period in the relationship. The Howard Government over the last five years has shown it doesn't do foreign policy against public opinion.

Bali gave us a tiny window of opportunity where public opinion impelled us back into a close relationship with Indonesia. What we're learning now is that the Indonesian Government doesn't do foreign policy against public opinion either.

So you have to two governments prone to populism, two populations profoundly misunderstanding of each other, two very contradictory political cultures. My prediction Tony, is for a very stormy passage ahead.

Tony Jones: What do you make of that popular feeling in Indonesia? How real is it, is it just being manufactured by a small group of people in the press, a small group of radical Islamists? What's going on. For example, hysterical reaction to the ASIO raids in Indonesia, are they looking for proof in a sense that Australia is a racist country?

Greg Sheridan: I think there's an element of that. I think this may be a psychological denial mechanism about Bali to say that the big rich neighbour is also just as bad. It's hard to know exactly how much anti-Australian feeling is there.

Whenever I'm there, I never feel any of it on the street and these crowds are pretty meaningless and there's no reliable opinion polling in Indonesia.

On the other hand, the media are responding to something, they're not just creating something. They're responding to something which already exists.

But you have to remember, of course, that this is a nation in terrible distress, in economic crisis, the whole future of the nation is unclear. Its confidence has been shot by the economic crisis of 1997, the political tumult that's been there since then. And it's a bit natural to sort of flail about it – your smug self-satisfied neighbour.

Tony Jones: Tim Lindsey, how do you judge the reaction in Indonesia to the ASIO raids?

Tim Lindsey: Democracy is trickier to deal with than dictatorship. We had a better relationship with Indonesia under Suharto than we do now under Megawati.

Which is – her government operates in a functioning democracy. Ramshackled perhaps, but functioning. That's not surprising.

Indonesia does not have political maturity in terms of party politics. They've only had them now for four years. It's going to take a while for those parties to sort themselves out and for policy to run in a more, shall we say, smooth fashion. This shouldn't surprise us.

As to populist reactions, that is what is being exploited, in particular, by Muslim parties pushing for an extra vote and in particular by the vice-president. But the populist reaction there are deep resentments in South-East Asia towards Australia.

Tony Jones: That's what I was going to jump in on, I mean how much worse is this going to get if there is a war on Iraq and perhaps prosecuted by only America and a few allies and Australia is one of them?

Tim Lindsey: Well, it will get worse. Islamic people in Indonesia are the most moderate in the world. But they're still members of the Ummat, that is, Islamic community, the notion of a world of Islam.

Most moderate Islams in Indonesia want a middle-class lifestyle, the one they see in the soap operas on television from Australia, from America, from the Latin world.

But at the same time they identify with Afghanis being bombed, they will identify with Iraqis and they see themselves as part of that Ummat under threat from what Osama bin Laden calls the crusader nation, that has resonance.

At the moment they're trapped between extremist Islam, which after all kills Indonesians as well. There have been a whole series of bombings leading up to the Bali episode in which Indonesians died, and a fear, an apprehension that America is somehow declaring war on their religion and they might ultimately be a target.

That feeds into a mistrust of Australia. After all Australian forces have fought on Indonesian soil three times. Their so-called threatening army's never made it here. There is a real perception...

Tony Jones: Fought to free them from the Japanese on the last occasion.

Tim Sheridan: And then we had all perhaps justified, and I'm not disputing that at all, but the point is, if we're talking about who feels threatened, we usually go back to the cliche of Australians fearing a massive army. In fact, Indonesians do feel apprehensive about Australia and a war on Iraq would sort of tie us into an American crusader image.

Tony Jones: I've got to stop you there, because I've got a very quick response finally from Greg Sheridan. Because we're just about out of time.

Greg Sheridan: I agree with 99 per cent of what Tim's saying but I don't think Iraq will be a problem in the relationship. We have our own spats with Indonesia.

America never figures in it, Middle East policy never figures in it. Once the conflict gets going in Iraq, America will have Iraqi allies, and it will be Muslim versus Muslim.

I think that's a big red herring coming into own our debate. We have our own problems with Indonesia. They're completely home grown. We can't blame the Americans for it.

Tony Jones: Alright, we're going to have to leave it there. Greg Sheridan and Tim Lindsey in Melbourne, thank you very much for joining us tonight.