Jose Ramos Horta knows a thing or two about Indonesia, about suppression, and about independence. So when he recently advised the Melanesians of Papua, and the Acehnese, to take Jakarta's offer of autonomy at face value, and give it a try, his voice demanded a hearing.
Asia has for decades contained four entrenched trouble spots: Kashmir, Sri Lanka, the Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula. Today, Sri Lanka is sufficiently calm for Australia to be playing three cricket Tests there, and, although there is still far to go, Korean ditente appears on its way.
But there is a grave risk that one or other stoushes within the Indonesian archipelago may turn enduringly ugly, and enlist in the big league of Asian conflict zones. That is one reason why today, the Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, is attending a meeting in the centre of Javanese culture and education, Yogyakarta, with his counterparts from the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and hosts Indonesia, as well as with East Timor's Ramos Horta.
They are inaugurating the South-West Pacific Dialogue that will attempt to bridge the troubled waters between the 10 countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations and the "arc of instability" that stretches from Timor across to Fiji. In the centre of this zone is Indonesia's largest and most resource-rich province, Papua (use of the term West Papua is associated with the independence campaign).
Keeping Papua Indonesian is an important sub-text behind the Indonesian promotion of the new dialogue. The dialogue was to have been held in Timika in Papua, but was shifted, illustratively, following the killing of three teachers there, including two Americans.
Papua New Guineans feel considerable sympathy for their Melanesian brothers across the mountain-strewn border drawn arbitrarily by the Dutch in 1828, then refined in a convention with the British in 1895. This early Dutch attempt at possession was mostly an empty pre-emptive gesture, confined to a few stations along the coast.
Others had earlier "claimed" the island, equally futilely. Luis Vaez de Torres, after whom the strait north of Australia is named, took possession in 1606 of the whole of New Guinea island for King Philip III of Spain, to whom he wrote: "All this land of New Guinea is peopled with natives, not very white ..." But much later the colonialists' game of musical chairs stopped, and everyone sat down. With remarkably few exceptions, they have stayed where they sat ever since, around the world.
Even PNG's natural empathy for the Papuans has been tempered by its own struggle to stay intact through the civil war with Bougainville. The Philippines, struggling to hold down its rebellious south, is also disinclined to encourage separatist sentiments. In Australia, the Bougainville cause attracted significant support from church, aid, and anti-mining groups. East Timor built far broader coalitions. And "success" there has reinforced the confidence about Papua, the next target.
This will not be the case, however. And those who support independence for Papua risk raising false hopes among separatists who live there, who have most to lose – as happened, with gruesome repercussions, in Bougainville, whose 12-year civil war benefited no-one.
The Papuans are perceived as another alienated, subject people exploited by "the Indonesians". Melbourne's RMIT University – which was the organising hub of the S11 anti-capitalism push to shut down the World Economic Forum – recently hosted a characteristic event, that honoured Papuan independence leader Jacob Rumbiak with an academic award in part for his "identity" as a Melanesian. With awesome irony, this was organised by the university's Globalism Institute, which greeted guests with Malaitan "warriors" from Solomon Islands. It was, of course, a coup by a Malaitan armed gang in mid-2000 that tipped the Solomons over the brink into warlordism, Today, it is a notorious "failed state".
Naturally, the Indonesian Government feels unhappy about institutions funded by Australian taxpayers – whether universities or non-government organisations – campaigning for the break-up of their country. And this is a democratically elected government, which has entrenched the rights of trade unionists, and which operates in a climate excited by Asia's most full-on media.
The alternatives for Indonesia to the present, muddling-through democracy are all worse. The most obvious ones are an unholy alliance between the nationalist army, the TNI and Muslim extremists; or the sort of Dodge City warlordism in the Solomons' Guadalcanal, PNG's Southern Highlands, and Indonesia's own Maluku. Half of the 2 million people living in Papua are non- indigenous. Many were directed there by the misbegotten transmigrasi scheme of the Soeharto era, but they have little to return to elsewhere in the archipelago. They can surely find an accommodation under autonomy that will let the Melanesians steer the province, especially if the lion's share of resources receipts are retained, as agreed by Jakarta.
The biggest obstacle is clearly the security forces – not only the TNI but also, as described in a disturbing new Amnesty International report, the paramilitary police, Brimob. The solution is to scale down the TNI severely, reorientate it from civilian suppression to addressing external threats, and to provide both it and the police with adequate funding to replace their present reliance on protection rackets tapping the country's embattled resources sectors.
Far easier said than done. A new Quarterly Essay on the topic, "Paradise Betrayed", in its very title hints unselfconsciously at the dangers for Australians in viewing the immediate region through a satisfyingly absolutist lens. No, traditional tribal life in Melanesia is not and was never "paradise". Nor are "absolutist" solutions, led by national sovereignty, the only options.
But John Martinkus, in the essay – a lively account of a foray into the province – rightly concludes: "It is time for the Australian Government to address the problem once again, before West Papua [sic] descends into the kind of mayhem our soldiers so belatedly had to deal with in East Timor."
Alexander Downer has lately been talking with Aung San Suu Kyi in Burma, is now at the dialogue, and is going on to the WEF's annual East Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur. The neighbourhood, and not just Iraq, is clearly in his mind. If he can somehow devise a way to help steer Indonesia towards a peaceful, prosperous outcome for Papua, he will well deserve the "statesman" plaudit in which his predecessor basked over Cambodia.