Tomi Soetjipto, Jakarta – As Indonesia's politics descends deeper into gloom, Indonesia's tarnished military is repolishing its image and trying to position itself as the nation's saviour.

The armed forces has spent the last few years in the public dog-house for its decades of support to the corrupt Suharto regime and then failure to control spiralling violence that ravaged Indonesia after he fell from power in 1998.

It has been an unpleasant reversal for an institution which saw itself as a people's army that grew out of the struggle to end Dutch rule in the 1940s but finally became the oppressor.

The military – which is given 38 seats in parliament – this week opted to abstain from a second censure by legislators against President Abdurrahman Wahid which could lead to his impeachment. But analysts said the neutrality is something of a veneer and behind the scenes, many of the military's top brass are cosying up to popular Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

And since parliament was so certain to issue the rebuke against Wahid, it did not make any practical difference which way the military voted, said one source close to the military. In fact, its decision to abstain on the vote won the military praise from the government and legislators.

The queenmaker

If Megawati – her party holds the most seats in the parliament – has the key to Wahid's survival then the military remains the major factor that can bring her to the presidency, which now appears to be up for grabs. "The military is now in an advantageous position, everybody needs them," Kusnanto Anggoro, an analyst from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, told Reuters.

The military clearly prefers the nationalism of Megawati, a trait derived from her father, founding President Sukarno. Her insistence on preserving national unity and opposition to federalism go hand in hand with military ideology. Like the military, Megawati does not seem to mind tough policies to keep the multi-ethnic country intact.

Wahid, on the other hand, is less predictable and the military is uneasy with what it sees as his interference in their internal affairs. Most grating on that score was last year's appointment of pro-Wahid general, Lieutenant-General Agus Wirahadikusumah, to a powerful army post which so rankled his fellow officers that he was out in less than three months. "But it had already left a wound in the military," Kusnanto said.

The whipping boy

But analysts said the military knows that if it is to repair its damaged image it must be seen as aloof from the political fray and give the appearance of neutrality.

For three decades, the army-dominated forces threw their political and military might behind former autocrat Suharto, whose tenure was marked by persistent human rights abuses.

In return for its support, Suharto gave the military wide-ranging access to business and placed senior officers in powerful civilian posts. After Suharto's fall three years ago, the military, confused and clearly hurt by the mounting public criticism against it, began to retreat to the barracks to lick its wounds.

But this February, it peeped out of the political closet and joined the consensus decision in parliament to issue the first censure against Wahid over two financial scandals, which triggered mass protests by his supporters.

It was in part fear of more violence that drove the military – which has struggled to stem repeated bloodshed around the archipelago – to abstain the second time. "The military realises ... it needs to be neutral [politically] if it wants to deal with any mass movement," military analyst M.T Arifin told Reuters

Leave it to the MPR

With the second censure, Wahid now has only 30 days to improve his leadership before parliament can call for a special session by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which has the power to sack the president.

In its response to Wahid's reply over the censure, the military said if he and parliament still fail to find common ground, the problem "should be solved through the MPR".

That, according to some analysts, is clear enough warning to Wahid that the military would not block efforts to hold the special session which could impeach him.

"If the majority of the parliamentary parties want a special session, we will still remain neutral but at the end the result would be up to them [political parties]," Lieutenant-General Hari Sabarno, a legislator from the military faction told Reuters.