Vaudine England – The bombing of more than a dozen Christian churches across Indonesia on Christmas Eve was known about in advance by military intelligence, but politics precluded any prevention.
Police, human rights activists and President Abdurrahman Wahid believe the campaign was organised, well-funded and timed to inflict maximum terror.
At previous times of political turmoil, the victims have been ethnic Chinese, as during the fall of former president Suharto in 1997 and 1998, or members of ethnic groups across the country in incidents which break out often. But this time Christians were the target.
Discussion on which groups are to blame focuses on the shadowy group of rogue military officers, paid or provoked Muslim gangs and the wealthy followers of Suharto.
Their goal is presumed to be the creation of fear and chaos to reduce public enthusiasm for a democratic society and heighten support for a return to military-run law and order.
The bombs went off within two hours of each other and were placed in vehicles, suggesting the backing of wealthy patrons. The technique and material was similar to previous terror attacks which remain unresolved.
These attacks include the September bombing that killed a dozen people at Jakarta's Stock Exchange and explosions at embassies.
National Police Chief General Suryo Bimantoro said the bombs were laid by professionals. "These indications show that the bombers are very organised, possibly by the same group," he said.
The bombs shattered the image of tolerance in the largely Muslim country with a history of religious pluralism. They also have political ramifications.
Mr Wahid said they were an attack on his Government and on him directly. As a famously tolerant Muslim priest and leader of inter-faith dialogue, he has sought to dampen Indonesia's potential for violence and appeal for a broad civic commitment. His failure to stop the killings, which have now reached the political heartland of Java, highlights once again his inability to rule effectively in the face of entrenched old-guard resistance to his Government.
The deeply divided parliament reconvenes in the new year to consider charges against Mr Wahid based on investigations of two financial scandals. If the atmosphere of insecurity is further stoked, his ability to fend off impeachment moves will be weakened once again.
If he wants to keep his job, Mr Wahid may have to compromise even more to achieve some form of co-operation with the security forces.
Sources confirm that the bombs were known about in advance by military intelligence. But demilitarisation policies separate the police from the military, much to the military's chagrin. The army, hoping to encourage support for an increased military role in Indonesia, is happy to let police try to cope with situations few institutions could handle.
"They knew about it," said one source, referring to military intelligence. "But because of the rivalry between them and the police, they let it go."
Asmara Nababan, secretary general of the National Commission on Human Rights, said: "What I am very worried about is that this is only the beginning. Explosions would make it very difficult to control conditions."