Peter Hartcher – Australia came perilously close to war with Indonesia last year. Australian policy planners know that we could easily veer towards a collision once more. And if you look at the speed with which things have gone badly wrong in our region, you'd be foolish to dismiss the threat.
The last clash centred on East Timor. The new potential clash centres on the Indonesian province of Irian Jaya, recently renamed West Papua. Australia could find itself confronting Indonesia over the fate of the province. It could happen quickly and easily. Some of the prerequisites are already in place.
"Conservative elements within the Jakarta elite remain resentful of Australia's actions in Timor and are convinced that a more sinister conspiracy informs Australia's long-term agenda," reports a team of Australian experts led by Professor Richard Robison, of Murdoch University.
They describe "suspicion, if not paranoia, in influential Indonesian military institutions including intelligence agencies concerning Australian designs on parts of the eastern archipelago".
In short, they think Australia wants to exploit Indonesia's moment of weakness to break up the archipelago and establish sway over some of the pieces as a way of limiting Jakarta's power.
And Jakarta has been rife with speculation that Australia is fomenting the independence movement in West Papua. That suspicion emerged at the highest level this week.
The President, Abdurrahman Wahid, said in Tokyo on his way to his first meeting with John Howard that "many people in Indonesia now object to my visit because there are Australians who have aided the creation of independence for Papuan people".
This seems to be a reference to the fact that there was a handful of Australian activists from non-governmental organisations hanging around last Sunday when the 2,700 delegates at the Papuan People's Congress voted for independence in the provincial capital of Jayapura.
John Howard emphatically denied the allegation that the Australian Government was fomenting separatism in Papua. But many Indonesians will simply not believe him.
Why not? First, Australia has operated covert military reconnaissance flights in Indonesian air space, and the Government has denied that, too. So there is some basis to Indonesian suspicion of covert Australian activity around the archipelago.
Second, if you are paranoid, you are already committed to a delusion. A denial will not move you. Third, it is politically convenient and very popular in Indonesia today to vilify Australia. So suspicion of Australian intentions is firmly entrenched and now legitimised by the Indonesian President himself.
The next prerequisite for trouble is the fact of established political confrontation between Jakarta and the breakaway province. Wahid has said that Indonesia does not recognise the legitimacy of the Papuan People's Congress and is prepared to crack down if necessary.
And the president of the self-appointed Papuan government, Mr Theys Eluay, says that he does not recognise Indonesian rule. "We gained our independence in 1961. We are an independent country, which has been occupied by an invading army."
The third prerequisite is the militias. Fighting between the two militia forces spilled into the capital, Jayapura, for the first time last Tuesday when the pro-Jakarta Red and White Taskforce attacked the pro-independence militia with machetes. One person was hospitalised and five shops destroyed.
The Red and White Taskforce, incidentally, is thought to be financed and supported by the Indonesian armed forces. Starting to sound familiar?
The missing ingredient so far in this new East Timor is the Australian interest. Australians had a long and clear historical attachment to East Timor and a sympathy for their cause. Why would they care about West Papua?
There are two reasons. First is simple human empathy. If the Indonesian armed forces do crack down on the Papuans it could easily bring the so-called CNN effect to bear. If naked villagers with bows and arrows are shown on Australian TV night after night being butchered by Indonesian troops with semi-automatic weapons, how would the Australian public react?
Second, the West Papuans have the support of many of their ethnic brothers next door in Papua New Guinea. Already, the Governor of PNG's Sandaun province has called on Australia to support Papuan independence. Australia guarantees PNG's security under a defence pact. If PNG is drawn into the dispute it could drag Australia into it too.
John Howard's meeting with Wahid this week is a necessary condition for trying to contain the dispute. But it is not a sufficient condition.